AGE WEEKLY REPORT, page-159

Weekly Review U Stocks - 18th Aug 2023

Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of U stocks. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis. In my figures, I also have performances of U stocks for 2021 and 2022 - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contain 28 stocks.
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How are we going in 2023 - General Markets-

• SP 500 after making a few 52 week highs and crossing 4600, first major pullback which many expected and I have been writing including last week in play
• SP 500 has lost just over 4.5% from its high, the downtrend from that high is into fourth week
• Upside - another retest of 4600 before getting to 4800 all time high
• Down side - 4300/4350 on SP 500 now forms a big level now if markets goes down further. This week on Friday we touched 4335 - so the number I have been talking about has already been placed once
• Bullish context is that this is a pullback in an uptrend and we will reverse before dropping less than 10% from 4600, first test 6% at 4300
• Market depth was improving with small caps, but it has now again got stalled - so risk on assets/explorers again not looking good
• VIX is now playing around 18 - so in neutral zone, though below 20 is still good for stocks, but lost 15 level it held for long time
• Fear and Greed indicator is at 45, down from 82 of recent times, from Extreme Greed to Neutral now, and good chance it will in Fear next week. As many expected and I also wrote a number around early 80s is usually when markets tops - this indicator also closely playing out as previously - many use this as guideline for tops and bottoms, so look for Fear or Extreme Fear as indicator of reversal for upside
• Bitcoin has finally capitulated this week. After trying to hold 30k play for some time, now its around 26k - very big drop this week, losing 28k support and danger of 25k losing and moving towards 24k. So finally Bitcoin is going in tandem with stocks, which is a long term trend of how these two go
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What will happen next week - General Markets:

• US markets had a flat day with resource stocks neutral. Li stocks could open flat while U stocks slightly higher
• SP 500 now in real test of pullback. As long as 4300/4350 hold, we should be good. Anything below, drops could be un predictable. 4300 is very key, else 4230 could come in play
• Some indicators of oversold happening, so a small bounce could be there - key for a bull trend to resume is to get over 4420.
• This week NVIDIA earnings on Wed after market, its a big stock, could provide some direction to market
• Powell to speak on Friday - Jackson Hole meet from Wed to Fri - this can also provide direction
• Some signs in crack of economy - Banks, Housing in US as well as China is suddenly gripped fears in minds of many
• The best we can hope is increase in breath. Lot of resource stocks not doing well. Junior explorers not doing well. The real gain by most will be made when this gain spreads - we wait
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Personally: Last week I said I have been moving a lot of my stocks into U sector, but doing it in tranches. Last week I had said I have bought 25% of what I wanted to buy in U stocks. This week I added more and am around 40% of what I want to buy. I will buy in tranches, to see if prices hold or move up before buying more. Li sector on average is going thru the worst phase in last 4 weeks. I had been getting out from most of my trading during this time. Things will change, but we need to see a reversal, unfortunately for now lot of stocks at 52 week low or close to it. This is just my thinking, I could be wrong in my assessment of both U and Li sector, so please dyor.
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Stock/Sector specific Info:

• We are still playing in 3/3.8 zone. We lost a bit this week from 3.8 to 3.6. I picked up a few at 3.5 and 3.6. With previous buys, my average is now around 3.5 - roughly around the same level we are now. Also picked up DYL, PEN, LOT, BOE and 92E/OKR for small play
• We need to finish over 3.8 now to get back to next zone. Next level 4.6. If things don't go well, a retest around 3.3/3.4 may happen - I said the same thing last week and we did touch 3.4 this week
• On Friday US U stocks did well, so we should have a green Monday, at least the start, sometimes by end of Monday we give back, lets hope not this time
• U stocks lost 3% this week - we gained 5% previous week, so some loss there
• BOE made a new 52 week high - so leaders making the right move for others to follow
• U future gained 25c this week to reach $57.00. So after reaching $57.75, a slow decline, last 5 weeks moving in right direction
• My view (same as last week) - Overall macros is looking good, sentiment very good, geo-politics supporting, so in a very good state, I feel the best in recent times - I am not 100% this is the one, just based on what has happened last 1 year and if general markets decline more, so cautiously optimistic
• Every week I write this, because I believe in it, so that's a constant reminder for me - "The big rally would still be dependent on supply squeeze - still no clear data here around how much secondary market has still got. So at this it should be cautiously optimistic with improvements in other nuclear related news - reactors opening, govt support, bans etc - rather than believing a squeeze is one. The spot price at this stage may turn out to be the biggest catalyst. I am optimistic that squeeze will come at some stage and U stocks will rise, what I am not sure is about timing. If the squeeze was there, we would have seen some signs. A lot of long term contracts have been signed - usually these are 10 year or more contracts - if there was squeeze and utilities were finding difficult to source, we would have seen signs/rumblings. So more likely at this stage there is no squeeze."

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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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