Weekly Review U Stocks - 25th Mar 2022
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of other U stocks besides AGE. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis.
Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
Personal Note of Thanks to Everyone
I wouldlike to take this opportunity to thanks everyone for a milestone I reached thisweek.
Yes,this week, I have done a one bag of my entire portfolio. It may not sound alot, but it means a lot to me, especially from where I was exactly 1 year back.
Istarted trading in 2009, traded till around 2013. Due to some personal reason Icould not trade for 8 long years. If you look at Hot Copper, my last post wasin July 2013. Next post May 2021.
I had agood sizable investment. It was still good at 2013. But when I came back lastyear in April 2021 after 8 years, my initial decent size portfolio had lost 80%of its value. I was left with only 20% of my initial investment. I knew it, buthad overlooked it for 8 years, due to some other issues. Most was lost in 2020Covid decline.
But thenI made a plan. I would do a lot of research. Every week I will decide what Ihave to do. Also, I decided on a strategy that I will trade 30-40% of myholding all the time – even for all my long holdings. This trading I callshort-term trading – usually lasts between a few days to a month. If you aretrading strongly rising shares, you can miss the beat and miss the good gains.It happens to me constantly. But I have been lucky. I have had more wins thanlosses, so I am still ahead. I know most people are either short-term traders orlong term holds. I know they do equally well, if not better than me. But I liketo be active. I love trading. I love the gains and misses equally. Sometimes inlife, we should do what we want, rather than what may be best from other people’sperspective. I firmly believe that and religiously follow it. I love trading –it beats my heart, keeps me occupied. I love making plans and executing them. SometimesI am lucky. And of course, market direction has helped in stocks I am in.
So yes,that luck has been with me for last one year. That 20% of my portfolio has nowturned to 200% of my total overlay in one year. So I have made ten times in lastone year (10 bag). Because I started with a low base which had lost 80% of itsvalue, my overall result is only double my total investment. But that’s still incrediblefor me. I wish it was my initial investments. Ten bags of that would have been phenomenal.But in investments (and life), I have learnt one thing – never look back. If Ihad done this or that. Its gone. Use that information to plan ahead.Practically forget and not dwell on missed opportunities. When I re-startedtrading last year, my target was to get to 50% of my total overlay within ayear – honestly, I would have been very happy. That would still have been good,so I have been lucky.
I havebeen very active in Hot Copper last few months. I am different type of person –I feel. Whenever I buy or sell anything, I post it on Hot Copper, nearly everytime, with the price I have bought or sold. I am ready to put myself on theline, everytime. Why I do that? I don’t know. I have rarely found anyone elsedoing that constantly – posting buy/sell with price immediately. I like to betransparent/honest. My only objective – if it helps somebody, even one person –its worth it. We are playing against big traders/sharks all the time. Whateverwe small fish can help each other, lets try.
I wouldlike to thank every body here. I ready every post of stocks where I have aninterest. I love FA/TA everything. I have my own way where I do a lot of numbercrunching – something I have called “trading patterns” in my posts. But allother information is very useful. That information that each of you contributeto. Even one liners, thoughts, ramblings – they all give a useful message aroundpattern/sentiment etc. And in share trading, sentiment is a big player. So –Thank You.
Format Change:I have changedthe format of the weekly reports. Instead of providing commentary aroundnumbers, I have left it out. Everyone can read the numbers and make out what ishappening. Instead, I have done something which some may find more useful.
I alwaysplan around my week on the weekend. I make a plan. Write it down. For each stockI am interested. From this week, I will be opening up my diary for all. As Ireport all my buy/sells AFTER THE EVENT, I will also say what I am planning,BEFORE THE EVENT. I could be wrong many times. But it doesn’t worry me. It wasa plan and didn’t succeed. You only have to win more than you lose and you willbe ahead. And I have removed all commentary. Everything I say there, is just myopinion. One man’s perspective, so carries a lot of risk. Probability wise, oneman can be wrong, many times or all the time, so use that informationaccordingly. But if it helps even one person, its good enough for me.
Here is the Figures for the Week:
U Futures Price
- Staying just below $60 so that is good
- After getting towards $55, made some gains and reached $59.20
- Last two days, had small declines of 10c and then 5c. Currently sitting at $59.05
- Think its taking a breather before it gets to next stage - target $80. Why I say $80, is all analysts have said that its need to be above 60, but many calling 80 base. So milestone wise these numbers are important, of course any gain is a gain.
Cash Balance Analysis for CR- Last week I had mentioned about BOE doing a CR.
- This week BMN announced they are doing CR at 22c.
- There are few others in my list (keeping here for reference). Highlighted ones I feel - At this stage TOE/PEN
- It helps in trading - to build a position or to see how high it can go - has worked out for me till now
DIARY - Here are the predictions and my personal plan for the week. 
Finally, what will happen to AGE this week
- For long termers, enjoy the fun. Sit tight.
- For those with plans in place (around some selling etc), if it was me, I would stick to the plan (I have seen regrets later - not saying it will happen, but can happen - a bird in hand is better than two in the bush theory)
- For those doing day/very short trading - there may be wild swings
- Price it can reach - unknown territory. Big traders will define that. They have been buying big (don't think retail is mopping large buying between 7.5 to 10c). They could push it to a level where its easy for them to sell and make big profits. They could still continue to hold and not sell, but unlikely, based on previous patterns
- Personally, I think I will be selling some to lock some profits. For my short term trading, I will only buy on open if its till 10 or maximum 10.5. Any higher open, I will wait to see how it pans. Not sure about buying till now.
- There are people calling out 15c, 17c, 20s etc - anything can happen. For those calling early 20s, if it reaches there, our market cap will be same as BOE. They are much advanced and could produce within 18 months. AGE has a long way to. I will be realistic in my expectation
- What to be careful about - Big traders have bought, they may (repeat may, they may not) want to cash in. After pushing up, sometimes relentless selling can push sp down. Don't find yourself holding the bag. In long term it may not matter, but for short-termers it can hurt
- Best of luck - remember its a good problem to have, so enjoy
(20min delay)