Weekly Review U Stocks - 25th Aug 2023
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of U stocks. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis. In my figures, I also have performances of U stocks for 2021 and 2022 - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contain 28 stocks.
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How are we going in 2023 - General Markets-
- SP 500 after making a few 52 week highs and crossing 4600, first major pullback which many expected and I have been writing including last week in play
- SP 500 has lost just over 4% from its high, the downtrend from that high is into fourth week
- Upside - another retest of 4600 before getting to 4800 all time high. First break to cross 4450 and stay above it.
- Down side - 4300/4350 on SP 500 now forms a big level now if markets goes down further. This week on Friday we touched 4356, a higher low than last week 4335.
- Mixed opinion at this stage. Medium term trend is up. Short term trend is down
- We are at cross roads - next few days to provide direction, its still 50/50 up and down
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What will happen next week - General Markets:
- US markets was green on Friday. Both Li and U should open higher. Mondays are always very tricky - we always open higher and give away a bit towards afternoon but before close - in case someone wants to time when to buy/sell - Again its probability, please dyor
- SP 500 now in real test of pullback. As long as 4300/4350 hold, we should be good. Anything below, drops could be un predictable. 4300 is very key, else 4230 could come in play
- Mixed lead indicators - no clear direction
- Suddenly volatility has increased, may be signs of a violent move one way or another
- Some signs in crack of economy - Banks, Housing in US as well as China is suddenly gripped fears in minds of many
- PCE data crucial data next week, along with GDP, Housing, Jobs etc. They could provide some direction. Otherwise technicals in play
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Personally: As I have been saying for a number of weeks, my main play is in Uranium sector along with holding stocks from different sectors which seem to be on an uptrend
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Stock/Sector specific Info:
- We are now playing in 3.8/4.6 zone. We gained decent this week, moved from 3.6 to 4.2
- First hurdle based on trading this week is 4.3. But to get to next stage, I feel we need to finish over 4.6
- On Friday US U stocks did well, average gain around 2%, so we should have a green Monday, at least the start
- U stocks lost 6% this week - so after losing 3% last week, a strong rebound
- BOE made a new 52 week high - so leaders making the right move for others to follow
- U future gained $1.25c this week to reach $58.25. So we crossed our recent high of $57.75. Last 6 weeks has been good
- My view (same as last week) - Overall macros is looking good, sentiment very good, geo-politics supporting, so in a very good state, I feel the best in recent times - I am not 100% this is the one, just based on what has happened last 1 year and if general markets decline more, so cautiously optimistic
- Every week I write this, because I believe in it, so that's a constant reminder for me - "The big rally would still be dependent on supply squeeze - still no clear data here around how much secondary market has still got. So at this it should be cautiously optimistic with improvements in other nuclear related news - reactors opening, govt support, bans etc - rather than believing a squeeze is one. The spot price at this stage may turn out to be the biggest catalyst. I am optimistic that squeeze will come at some stage and U stocks will rise, what I am not sure is about timing. If the squeeze was there, we would have seen some signs. A lot of long term contracts have been signed - usually these are 10 year or more contracts - if there was squeeze and utilities were finding difficult to source, we would have seen signs/rumblings. So more likely at this stage there is no squeeze."
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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(20min delay)