Weekly Review U Stocks - 29th Sep 2023Here is the weekly review...

Weekly Review U Stocks - 29th Sep 2023

Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of U stocks. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis. In my figures, I also have performances of U stocks for 2021 and 2022 - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.

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here are no new additions this week, so my stock list contain 28 stocks.
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How are we going in 2023 - General Markets-

• SP 500 after making a few 52 week high on July 27 is in pullback mode for over 2 months
• For last few weeks it was in choppy mode around 4450 level, but since last week its playing around 4300..
• Of the numbers I have been calling for downside, 4330/4300/4250/4200 - we have lost the first now of 4330 (last week) and now 4300 (this week). Other 2 numbers now very much in play
• Last week I said we are in semi-free down flow - we continued that this week, dropping another 1%, from 4320 to 4288
• Many resistance levels have been broken, so its looking weak
• Upside - first bounce level 4380/4400, downside 4200
• Overall trend from October is still uptrend. There will be pullbacks. So at high level (those holding longs etc) the uptrend is still intact. Those looking for swing, short-term trades, some volatility may be in place
• My take of what is happening, just a gut feel (not a prediction as even the best in predicting have fallen flat) - SP 500 the level of 4200 is in play - we may get a bounce but still feel that number is in play - and if that does not hold we may be in trouble.
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What will happen next week - General Markets:

• US markets had a small drop on Friday, over 0.3%. U stocks had a big drop and Li stocks were in green. ASX may have the same trend, but if indices are weak, Li will not be able to hold greens
• We have now over come the bearish September. Last year we bottomed in October. There is a good chance we will do another bottom in October this year. There may be a bounce, but we may go down, bottom out and then reverse
• SP 500 now in real test of pullback. Needs to hold 4200 in worst case, - so another 2% or so
• Some signs in crack of economy - Banks, Housing in US, China and now Inflation Increasing suddenly gripped fears in minds of many
• Although we could reverse from here, odds of falling a bit more before reversing has higher probability
• Uranium sector has had very good last 2 months, I feel a plateau may be happening. Lithium sector in its worst phase of last 12 months. I feel bottoming may happen in next few weeks

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Personally: My situation similar to last week. Its mostly Uranium - but I have a feeling a plateau may be happening, so have slowly taking profits. But U sector can go on and on - so unless I see a downturn, will continue to play. But now have reduced my longs from 60% to 45%, doing more short-term trades as I want to prepare in case the sector has a big drop - not looking now, but as I mentioned last week prices have stretched away from moving averages so a pullback can happen. I mentioned we are in Stage 3 (Stage 1 gave 30%, Stage 2 gave 50%, Stage 3 I said will give another 50%), we got 15% average gains across 28 stocks this week, so another good week and still a bit to go. Somehow I feel Li is going to come back shortly, have not moved yet, but watching with great intent.
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Stock/Sector specific Info:

• We are still playing 4.6 to 5.9 zone. We need to get over 5.9, next number is 6.8. If things go bad, we need to hold 4.6. The CR process has pushed us down a bit.
• Monday I am thinking we may be confused across U stocks with chance of weakness across the board
• Many smaller stocks have loved this euphoria - rising more than big stocks this week - a reality check may come for them this week - if there is a drop, they will drop bigger.
• Last week we traded over 400m shares. CR shares were issued on Thursday. We have held, but unfortunately just held, overhang of CR is still too great. Any attempts to get past 5.9 has been met by sellers - so a task cut out
• AGE is now very undervalued compared to others, but this CR has literally put us in the backfoot, and may continue to do so.
• Personally for U stocks I have reduced my long term to 45% (from 60%). Doing more short-term trades.
• For AGE, Still holding longs at average 3.5 and trading stocks at 5.1. I still believe a sudden burst is due.
• Have a strong feeling that suddenly we may have a big day and we are in 7s - may be hope, but very possible, not sure when - do we have to wait another 2 weeks and get CR process over or before that - volume says before that but CR process says later - lets see. And then suddenly at double figures - volumes are indicating of a possibility of such rise - (of course sector sentiment has to remain positive, euphoria feel)
• On Friday US U stocks were down big time - over 5%, not sure if rebalance or as I was thinking a pullback because prices have moved away from moving averages.
• U stocks gained 15% this week - 20% up for the year.
• 7 stocks made a new 52 week high - all on last day of the week
• U future gained $4.50 this week to reach $70.00 (Trading view, many platforms have higher numbers). So very good last 2 months. 18 months back target for restarts was 80. With inflation during that, now we need a number between 90 and 100, and to stay there, not spike for short period.
• After last week, I believe we are around 70% decoupled from general markets., much better look than few weeks back
• My only worries, only for short-term, is that general markets may drop a bit more. But more importantly the stocks rising without consolidation and getting away from moving averages- so some consolidation, small pullbacks would be healthy, otherwise as generals markets moved from Extreme Greed to Fear now, we could also move from Euphoria to Fear if there is a sudden big fall
• My gut feel - we will do a small pullback, rise higher, then do a relatively bigger pullback - so expecting volatility to increase - last few weeks it has been one way traffic - any one buying and holding previously is a winner

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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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