Weekly Review U Stocks - 6th Oct 2023
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of U stocks. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis. In my figures, I also have performances of U stocks for 2021 and 2022 - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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here are no new additions this week, so my stock list contain 28 stocks.
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.How are we going in 2023 - General Markets-
- SP 500 after making a few 52 week high on July 27 was in pullback mode for over 2 months, maybe now bounce time
- For last few weeks it was in choppy mode around 4450 level, then last 2 weeks around 4300, and then was testing 4200 since then..
- As of now 4200 looks have been held. 4 days this week it went around 4220 but rebounded.
- On Friday it regained the key level of 4300. Next 4450 though has to get some numbers before that
- Gained around 0.5% for the week, a gain after some time, from 4288 to 4308
- Overall trend from October is still uptrend. There will be pullbacks. So at high level (those holding longs etc) the uptrend is still intact. Those looking for swing, short-term trades, some volatility may be in place
- My take of what is happening, just a gut feel is t- I had said pullback may happen, good chance 4200 will be held - both seems to have happened - so now I feel we are in a bounce taking us towards another attempt at 4600 - but there will lots of ups and downs still
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What will happen next week - General Markets:
- US markets had a big gain on Friday, indices over 1%. So both U and Li should be in positive
- Seasonally they say we bottom in October. There is still a chance that we may rally, then drop and make a final bottom of year towards end of October. Better scenario is that we have made the bottom just above 4200.
- SP 500 now in real test of bounce. Needs to hold 4300.
- Some signs in crack of economy - Banks, Housing in US, China and now Inflation Increasing suddenly gripped fears in minds of many
- Last week I had said Uranium stocks are stretched, have moved away from moving averages, so had said we may see a pullback up to 20% - most stocks dropped around 20% and now are getting back into green - somehow it has played out as I thought. Lithium sector is still unpredictable. Huge shorting going on in big stocks. Li price is still weak. So we need to see if bottom can form here.
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Personally: My situation similar to last week. Its mostly Uranium. Last week I had said I had reduced some long positions from 60 to 45% as I was expecting around 20% pullback in U stocks. The pullback around 20% did happen, and now I have bought back them and now holding 60% long. Have picked up 1 Li stock this week but have a tight stop loss in case it doesn't go well. Otherwise scalping, a few stocks are doing 10 to 20% swings, so trying to play those on the side.
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Stock/Sector specific Info:
- We are still playing 4.6 to 5.9 zone. We need to get over 5.9, next number is 6.8. If things go bad, we need to hold 4.6. The CR process has pushed us down a bit.
- Monday I am thinking most U stocks should make a positive move, the Friday move didn't sustain, hopefully Monday one does
- AGE is now very undervalued compared to others, but this CR has literally put us in the backfoot, and may continue to do so.
- Personally for U stocks I have bought back my long termers to 60 from 45 last week.
- U stocks lost 10% this week - now up 9% for the year.
- U future gained $2.75 this week to reach $72.75. So very good last 2 months. 18 months back target for restarts was 80. With inflation during that, now we need a number between 90 and 100, and to stay there, not spike for short period.
- I believe we are around 70% decoupled from general markets
- My gut feel - if general markets behave, we may have a very good week for U stocks
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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(20min delay)