Weekly Review U Stocks - 10th Nov 2023
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of U stocks. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis. In my figures, I also have performances of U stocks for 2021 and 2022 - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
.
.
Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
.,
.
There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contain 28 stocks.
.
.
How are we going in 2023 - General Markets
- SP 500 looks to have reversed from its downtrend, gaining around 240 points week before and 57 points this week
- SP 500 crossed key level of 4400 on Friday, finishing on 4417. Next 4450 and 4600. Downside to hold 4300 but could reverse from 4330
- Volatility Index VIX is below 15, Yields have come back but still high, Dollar Index not coming down
- Bitcoin is saying we are going up. Crossed key resistance of 35k this week, now over 37k
- Sentiment Indicator is at 42, still on Fear - last week was also on 42, so markets moving up has not given enough confidence to punters
- So overall markets going in right direction. Only problem, Russell 2000 is still struggling, barely up for the year whereas Nasdaq up by 40% - so not good from risk/resource assets - and we are seeing that in resource and small caps
- Seasonally they say we bottom in October. If seasonality is to play, we may have bottomed in October - again - as last year
.
What may happen next week - General Markets:
- US markets had another good week. Previous week was coming back from reversal. A follow thru was required to confirm the reversal, till now looking like we may have another October low for year, but this week will provide more confirmation
- It would be good to get over 4450 on SP 500, so 4400 can act as support - this may then form the platform for move to 4600
- Some signs in crack of economy - Banks, Housing in US, China, Inflation and now Wars suddenly gripped fears in minds of many
- Next week - CPI/PPI data - they will provide directions
.
.
Personally:
My situation is slightly different to last week. Last week - 20% U stocks, 55% Li, 10% rest short play, 20% cash. This week - 25% U, 40% Li, 5% others and 30% cash. Other part dropped from 10% to 5% is one REE stock I was playing, I got out, it made big gains in short period including a 52 week this week. The Li got reduced because I got out of one stock. For last several weeks I was writing that I playing one Li stock in very, very big way. At one time 40% of my portfolio was that one stock, which was also making me nervous from risk perspective. When I was buying it was on gut feel - that something is happening. Many said that market cap is high etc, but price action was telling a different story. I follow price action as most important indicator as quantifying market caps is very difficult. This week I got out of nearly all of that stock as could see price action wavering - very lucky there as had a two bag in under 2 months. Luckily after I exited there was CR, which could also indicate why weakness was there, waiting for a re-entry, but at this stage may not play at the same high level as before - so have kept some cash for that.
Last week I started writing on another stock on some daily basis. That stock has had some bad blood and declined a lot because of not meeting deadlines - but also because most Li stocks have also had a big drop in last one year. So there was an announcement and I saw some buying going on. I started buying last week and wrote last week. This week I started buying in big way, through out the week and writing daily there. That stock had a weekly gain of 100% this week (its in weekly report). I am up 60% because I was buying in tranches, just to manage risk. So why am I buying? Same - I feel something is happening, these are not normal buys, many calling it p & d, but volume very very high, price from its low has increased a lot. To me it looks like in initial stages and something big could possibly happen. But for me its still a gut feel, at this stage price action is supporting my feeling, so I could be completely wrong, so please dyor. If price action is not good, I will exit.
.
.
Stock/Sector specific Info:
- We are still playing 4.6 to 5.9 zone. But now with weakness. We dropped from 5.5 to 4.9 this week. Volumes nothing much to report.
- U stocks lost 2% for this week, is nearly flat for the year across 28 stocks
- This week a number of stocks broke their key levels - DYL going below 118, PEN touching 10, AEE 27.5 - but many others have held the level, eg PDN dropping below key support of 93.5 and coming back
- U future lost 35c for the week, to reach $73.65 - still very bullish but not enough to send U stocks to new high - may be need at least 80
- On Friday US U stocks were in green, including general markets, so hopefully some green on Monday
- Personally, I am getting a feel of bottoming, so added some more U stocks this week, last week my portfolio was 20% U, this week 25% - will add more if I see it playing out as I am thinking
- A lot of gain has happened in the sector, so a bit of consolidation, profit taking may be happening after the monster move. My gut feel is the vertical rise that we saw recently may be difficult to emulate, so it may be choppy, slow grind - there will be moments of euphoria which may be sold, but steady increase possible, subject to general markets as well - if they crash, then who knows. One of the reasons I am holding back on adding more U is because of general markets
.
.
Here is the Figures for the Week:
.
.
(20min delay)