Weekly Review U Stocks - 17th Nov 2023
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of U stocks. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis. In my figures, I also have performances of U stocks for 2021 and 2022 - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contain 28 stocks.
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How are we going in 2023 - General Markets
- SP 500 looks to have reversed from its downtrend, third straight week of gains
- SP 500 crossed key level of 4500 on Friday, finishing on 4514. Next 4600 and then all time high above 4800. Downside first 4450, then 4330
- Volatility Index VIX is below 14, Yields have come back more but still high, Dollar Index weakening now
- Bitcoin is not able to stay above, but still strong and its rises have come in big jumps then gradual, so another one may be coming
- Sentiment Indicator - well it is reflecting stocks, after playing Extreme Fear and on Fear for sometime, it has smashed thru neutral and now in Greed at 58 - so punters are embracing the rally
- So overall markets going in right direction. Russell 2000 (worst performing index) too trying to come back but has to do more - so that our risk/resource stocks also enjoy the boom
- Very good economic data this week, both CPI/PPI came in favourable to markets, jobs too
- Seasonally they say we bottom in October. If seasonality is to play, we may have bottomed in October - again - as last year
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What may happen next week - General Markets:
- Chances are good that overall markets may still be favourable
- There is a possibility of some consolidation, but 4600, an 18 month high, is attracting punters like a magnet
- It would be good to get over 4600 on SP 500, so 4450 can act as support - this may then form the platform for move to 4800
- No major economic data this week - jobs, housing, consumer confidence, earning reports including many retail
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Personally:
My situation is slightly different to last week. Last week - 25% U, 40% Li, 5% others and 30% cash. This week - 30% U, 50% Li, 5% others and 15% cash.
The big ones that I am playing currently are two Lithium stocks -
- One I am playing very big and playing for short to medium term, a huge potential here with market cap not very high, but still has to deliver, I like the play here and am playing very big - will continue to play like this unless there is an announcement or price action is not good
- Other I am playing moderate to big but playing with very soft hands based on past history of Li stocks in this phase - I am writing currently in these two stocks
- Rest have picked a few more U stocks and feeling the consolidation which is going on may be towards the end phase, but not there yet
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Stock/Sector specific Info:
- We are still playing 4.6 to 5.9 zone. But now with strength. We moved from 4.9 to 5.7 this week. Volumes nothing much to report - similar to last several weeks
- U stocks gained 6% for this week with some small stocks gaining big, up 7%for the year across 28 stocks
- CXU/LOT did 52 week highs this week - had picked up some CXU but sold it on Friday
- This week a number of big stocks didn't make much move - like BOE/DYL/PDN - so we need to see them go up - I have loaded up on some BOE/PDN but big on DYL
- U future gained 35c for the week, to reach $74, some saying we are touching 80 - crossing 80 would be good from sentiment perspective
- On Friday US U stocks were in green, including general markets, so hopefully some green on Monday
- Personally, I am getting a feel of bottoming, so added some more U stocks this week, last week my portfolio was 25% U, this week 30% - will add more if I see it playing out as I am thinking
- A lot of gain has happened in the sector, so a bit of consolidation, profit taking may be happening after the monster move. My gut feel is the vertical rise that we saw recently may be difficult to emulate, so it may be choppy, slow grind - there will be moments of euphoria which may be sold, but steady increase possible, subject to general markets as well - if they crash, then who knows. One of the reasons I am holding back on adding more U is because of general markets
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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(20min delay)