Weekly Review U Stocks - 24th Nov 2023
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of U stocks. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis. In my figures, I also have performances of U stocks for 2021 and 2022 - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contain 28 stocks.
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.How are we going in 2023 - General Markets
- SP 500 has continued its uptrend, 4th straight week of gains - gaining just over 1% this week
- SP 500 crossed key level of 4500 last week and stayed above that number the whole week - which should be considered bullish. Next 4600 and then all time high above 4800. Downside first 4450, then 4330
- Volatility Index VIX is below 13 - very bullish, Yields have come back more but still high, Dollar Index weakening now but still not much
- Bitcoin finally made its decisive move above 35k, now over 37k and making an attempt towards 40k - bullish for stock markets from a risk taking perspective
- Sentiment Indicator - moved in Greed section from 58 to 68 - so punters are also hopeful of some more gains
- So overall markets going in right direction. Russell 2000 (worst performing index) too trying to come back but has to do more - so that our risk/resource stocks also enjoy the boom
- Seasonally they say we bottom in October. If seasonality is to play, we may have bottomed in October - again - as last year
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What may happen next week - General Markets:
- Chances are good that overall markets may still be favourable
- There is a possibility of some consolidation, but 4600, an 18 month high, is attracting punters like a magnet
- It would be good to get over 4600 on SP 500, so 4450 can act as support - this may then form the platform for move to 4800
- Key economic data this week around - PCE, GDP, PMI - along with some Fed speech - these could provide directions
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Personally:
My situation is slightly different to last week. Last week - 30% U, 50% Li, 5% others and 15% cash. This week - 35% U, 30% Li, 5% others and 30% cash.
Last week I had mentioned two big ones that I was playing, two Lithium stocks -- First one, which I have been playing for medium term, I could see some short-term topping process. As I mentioned on that thread, I had got out of a fair few mid this week. So currently hold one-third of what I was. Watching to see a trend change including volume coming back before I buy back. The SP did drop 20% below my sell price but is trying for a recovery - it could happen, but I feel it may need more volume or news. When I first bought and wrote on that stock the price that I had bought, SP did gain over 250% in last few weeks, my gain was around 150% as I was buying in tranches, so very lucky there
- Other I I mentioned I was playing with very soft hands based on past history of Li stocks in this phase (Stage 1 -potential/hope/hype) - Previous week I had exited 40%, this week another 60% - so I am out - SP did drop 30% from my sell price, trying to make a recovery, so will be watching
- I have picked up a few more U stocks and feeling the consolidation which is going on may be towards the end phase, but not there yet. Have been steadily adding around 5% each week of my portfolio for last few weeks
- Reason I have more cash at 30% is because I sold a few stocks this week
- All the above is just based on my analysis, feelings etc - I could be wrong and have been wrong many times before, so please dyor and check risk/reward
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Stock/Sector specific Info:
- I have been saying there are two trading ranges 4.6 to 5.9 and next from 5.9 to 6.8. For last couple of months we were playing in 4.6 to 5.9 range. This week we are showing that we want to go up, but 5.9 is a major number for me, and it is also showing in trading this week - so this week is testing whether we are ready to go to next level - there is no confirmation yet, but good to see a test is happening. We moved from 5.7 last week to 6 this week
- U stocks remained flat forthis week with some big stocks making small gains for the week, up 8%for the year across 28 stocks
- CXU/LOT did 52 week highs last week - they were the same 2 who did 52 weeks high this week along with ETF of URNM
- Personally I have been adding roughly 5% of my portfolio in U stocks for last 3 weeks. This week I picked up AGE, EL8, DYL on a moderate level and some small number in few others
- U future gained $6.25 for the week, to reach $80.25, finally crossing the magical number 80 - Couple of years back, 80 was supposed to be a good number for restarts, but with inflation etc, feeling is that number should be closer towards 100, maybe that's why stocks have not gone ballistic
- US stocks have done better than us, so some catching up to do
- On Friday US U stocks were in green, including general markets, so hopefully some green on Monday
- A lot of gain has happened in the sector, so a bit of consolidation, profit taking may be happening after the monster move. My gut feel is the vertical rise that we saw recently may be difficult to emulate, so it may be choppy, slow grind - there will be moments of euphoria which may be sold, but steady increase possible, subject to general markets as well - if they crash, then who knows. But its bubbling now and getting ready - whether it can actually do it, we need more confirmation
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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(20min delay)