Weekly Review U Stocks - 1st Dec 2023
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of U stocks. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis. In my figures, I also have performances of U stocks for 2021 and 2022 - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contain 28 stocks.
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How are we going in 2023 - General Markets
- SP 500 has continued its uptrend, 5th straight week of gains - gaining just around 0.8% this week
- SP 500 crossed key level of 4500 couple of weeks back and stayed above that number the whole week - which should be considered bullish. I had said next number is 4600 - SP 500 reached 4599.39 on Friday - Algos made sure it doesn't cross 4600
- Volatility Index VIX is below 13 - very bullish, Yields had some big drop this week, another bullish signal, Dollar Index weakening as well
- Bitcoin now above 38k and moving towards 40k - bullish for stock markets from a risk taking perspective
- Sentiment Indicator - stayed in Greed section, last week 68, this week 67 - so punters are also hopeful of some more gains, without moving to Extreme Greed
- So overall markets going in right direction. Russell 2000 (worst performing index) too trying to come back but has to do more - so that our risk/resource stocks also enjoy the boom, but moving up now with another 3% gain on Friday
- Seasonally they say we bottom in October. If seasonality is to play, we may have bottomed in October - again - as last year
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What may happen next week - General Markets:
- Chances are good that overall markets may still be favourable
- There is a possibility of some consolidation, but 4600, an 18 month high, is attracting punters like a magnet - and now its touching that
- It would be good to get over 4600 on SP 500, so 4450 can act as support - this may then form the platform for move to 4800
- Key economic data this week around - PMI, jobs data including Non-Farm Payroll to provide direction
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Personally:
My situation is only slightly different to last week. Last week - 35% U, 30% Li, 5% others and 30% cash. This week - 35% U, 20% Li, 10% others and 35% cash. So 10% decrease in Li stocks, and 5% gain in Others and Cash
Last week I had mentioned two around two Lithium stocks I was playing big, I had mentioned I had got out of one and reduced in other -- First one, which I have been playing for medium term, which is playing around a major announcement of PFS shortly, I am just around 40% of my holding from couple of weeks back. Price was stalling and looked like some back test etc so had got out 60%. It is still in consolidation zone, has not been able to break out for me to buy back everything
- Other I I mentioned I was playing with very soft hands based on past history of Li stocks in this phase (Stage 1 -potential/hope/hype) - I had mentioned how I got out, that stock had further 20% drop this week, close to 50% from its recent high, so till now it may look all right my decision to exit - Reason I exited and have mentioned many times, Stocks that play in this hype/hope phase, I exit if it drops around 10 to 15% from its high - In 2 different sells I got out around 12.5% from its high which I have mentioned in the thread of that stock
- Although I have maintained U stock level - its at a cross road, big gains have been made, its not finding it easy to make the next leg - any gains are met by profit taking sells, so watching carefully whether it will top here or can make the next leg
- Others - In some Gas/Oil stocks, Health and Gold - got out of REE etc
- All the above is just based on my analysis, feelings etc - I could be wrong and have been wrong many times before, so please dyor and check risk/reward
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Stock/Sector specific Info:
- I have been saying there are two trading ranges 4.6 to 5.9 and next from 5.9 to 6.8. For last couple of months we were playing in 4.6 to 5.9 range. Last week we are showing that we want to go up, but 5.9 is a major number for me, and it was attempting without success. This week confirmed the failure and we are back to 4.6 to 5.9 zone, we moved from 6 to 5.5 this week, losing 10%, we also touched 5, though have rebounded well for now. The sector stocks have to move up, most stocks in this phase go together, so we will have to hope for that move to happen
- U stocks lost 4% for this week with most stocks in the red, big drop by DYL, up 4%for the year across 28 stocks
- Personally I had been adding roughly 5% of my portfolio in U stocks for 3 weeks, but this week kept same level. This week I did some rotation, moved some out of DYL to EL8/LOT
- U future gained 0.75c for the week, to reach $81.00, finally crossing the magical number 80 - Couple of years back, 80 was supposed to be a good number for restarts, but with inflation etc, feeling is that number should be closer towards 100, maybe that's why stocks have not gone ballistic
- US stocks have done better than us, so some catching up to do
- There are some big signs of topping here in U stocks, considering many gains are being immediately sold down with profit taking - so a very tricky situation here, watching very closely just for that reason, especially short term. For medium term it may be all right, but if short term topping happens, sometimes it can take months to get out, hence important for those who do short-term trades
- On Friday US U stocks were in red, general markets were green, Russell 2000 up 3%, Li stocks average gain over 4%, but U stocks in red - the topping theory I am talking may have been in play
- A lot of gain has happened in the sector, so a bit of consolidation, profit taking may be happening after the monster move. My gut feel is the vertical rise that we saw recently may be difficult to emulate, so it may be choppy, slow grind - there will be moments of euphoria which may be sold, but steady increase possible, subject to general markets as well - if they crash, then who knows. But its bubbling now and getting ready - whether it can actually do it, we need more confirmation
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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(20min delay)