Weekly Review U Stocks - 1st Mar 2024
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of U stocks. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis. In my figures, I also have performances of U stocks for last year - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contain 34 stocks.
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How are we going in 2024 - General Markets
- SP 500 made yet another new All Time high this week at 5140, highest close ever at 5137 on Friday, finishing the week with around 1 percent gain for the week. To those who keep an eye, on Friday Indices have done the best in last few weeks, so ASX usually starts in good mood on Monday - for those thinking about closing position on Friday for short-term trades
- Volatility Index VIX is just over 13 - still very bullish, for months now has kept this bullish level, which is also reflected in indices
- Bitcoin there is no stopping, last week I wrote 51k, this week its 61k, next week maybe it will do its ATH, bodes well for taking risk in market for risk-on/resource/commodity stocks
- Sentiment Indicator - at Extreme Greed 77 - for last several weeks it has been hovering here, punters happy to dive in. Previous patterns, usually stock market tops for a correction/pullback at early 80s on Sentiment Indicator, something to watch
- Russell 2000 overall not doing great, more important indicator for risk-on/resource stocks, but this week it surprised with a near 3% gain, the best of the indices. Lets hope we see more improvement here
- Yields dropping slightly and going in right direction, though it has to fall more
- Dollar Index still not budging, a small divergence there compared to how stock market is going
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What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li:
- There are no indications at this stage that Indices are ready for some correction. It will happen though as a big rise has happened, but bulls are in control
- Russell 2000 is key for us, it needs to go up more and outperform other indices, it has started, it may continue to claw in the difference
- Key economic data this week around - mainly PMI, JOLT, plus some other usual etc which will not make much impact
- The big fellow, Mr Powell is speaking this week, testimony, he is usually hawkish, something to watch for - later in the week
- Uranium Sector overview - Uranium Spot price is in consolidation mode after making 106 high, now at 95. U stocks also in consolidation phase. I have been writing for few weeks that CCJ has to come around 39 to 41 from 51 - this week it touched 39. So is that it, is the correction done? Not sure but it has now at least done the necessary. I have been thinking and writing 39 for CCJ for sometime, at least it made it this week - will it go lower , don't know? U sentiment and stocks were going in euphoria which I was writing is not sustainable, so a reality check has happened. After rise in September and early January, I was writing next decent rise will come in March/April. So its coming there, Friday U stocks did well, so lets see
- Lithium Sector overview - Couple of months back I was writing U stocks in euphoria and Li stocks in lot of gloom. U stocks still I will not say gloom, correction, but Li stocks are slowly moving towards euphoria - not yet there, but another week or two if the sentiment remains as of late last week, big gains can be made here. The sector has been bashed, spot prices have fallen dramatically - but it now looks like a new season has started, early sunshine, buds forming, happy noises - its still early days. One thing I keep on repeating is that it will not go in a straight line, but as long as we keep moving up, more than down, it will became huge. Will it come back to its glory days of 2 years back? I think after seeing the highs and lows, we should be pragmatic and take as it happens. For me price action is most important and I usually follow that. ALB who I use as indicator is at 142. Somehow the whole of last week the numbers I was calling each day, somehow it got there. I have written many times I follow it for indicator, at this stage its looking good. It needs to get to 150+ to reach neutral state. It is still far away from high 200s. When it crosses 180 (another 20% rom 150), that will mark the positive phase. Reason I say is that in December after falling towards 112, it came to 150+ but could not hold it, and made a new low around 108. So I wouldn't get complacent, yet. US Li gained on Friday, so most likely a positive start on Monday.
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Personally:
My current situation this week - 5% U, 60% Li, 15% Others, 15% cash. Major change from last week is have increased Li exposure from 40% to 60% and cash reduced.
U stocks I had two good gains in September and January. Now I am hold 1 big, few others small, mostly trading - otherwise in a wait state, looking for cue for next leg. Its in correction mode. It has reached the levels down where I thought it may go if its a correction - falling more might be something more sinister. Will not be surprised if it comes back from here - my calculations for it to come back, was few more weeks, but it reached some levels where I wanted it to go, so am watching now.
Li stocks I am in a big way now, hold 2 large, another 3 medium to large - I am writing there. Hold 4 more medium and 6 more small - so at this stage holding 15 Li stocks as of Friday, others I don't write as my holding is not very significant.
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Also playing with some REE and Health stocks. (writing here same as last week, as same play is happening). Many REE stocks are doing same hype play what Lithium was last year. Lot of stocks buying land in Canada, jumping few 100% on hype. I call them Stage 1 - hype. Next comes, Stage 2 - Reality. Its best to get out before Stage 2 from a risk perspective although anything can happen. I certainly get out, closer it comes to reality or price action becomes bad. Hence a bit up on Others holding for me.
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Stock/Sector specific Info:
- AGE is now playing 5.3 to 5.9 level. A key number based on previous trading patterns was in the middle - 5.6. This week it has gone there 3 times, finally closing on that number on Friday, lowest close coming back from 8.3. Will it hold? It will hold on Monday as US U stocks were in green, but it is still vulnerable if sentiment does not improve next week. Down numbers 5.3, 4.6 in worst case scenario - don't think it will go there. Upside, finish above 5.9, then get to 6.8
- Weekly perspective, loss of 5%
- U stocks lost 1% for the week, so 4 weeks of decline, but this was the smallest drop in last 4 weeks, maybe stabilising
- U stocks up 8% for the year, has come down big way from mid 30s a month back
- Personally I mentioned 19th weekly report, I had exited most. Now waiting for re-entry
- U future is now at $95. It dropped from 106 to 95 - so some correction happening there
- On Friday US U stocks were in green, so hopefully a positive start to the week.
- Many U stocks after making big gains in September and January have been included in various indices, including AGE, so a good sign for the sector to come to the forefront
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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(20min delay)
