Is it the usual play or something more sinister?
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Last week I wrote that we are coming closer towards the pointy end of making a bottom towards the end of July. We still have few days to go. I have been talking about this low since mid-may, saying we will top end of May and bottom end of July. But that was based on "normal" play. What I mean by normal is that general markets, even if they are not increasing, they are not in big drop mode. In my weekly report last weekend, I wrote that general markets are easing, may get into correction - drop of 10+%. The good play would be pullback - 2/5% drop. As of yesterday, SP 500 has nearly dropped 5% from its high. So we are at a crucial juncture. If we drop more in general markets, I feel the July end bottom we may have to wait. Markets to stabilise before we feel we have bottomed.
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In mid-May when I wrote what the bottom would look like, initially I wrote that a 30/40% from its high. Few weeks back I revised that saying the drop could be closer towards 50% for some stocks. AGE has come down from 8.3 to 4.2, so nearly 50% - so in track with what I was thinking. Why such a big drop? U sector is volatile and these rises and falls are not unusual. For long termers, I feel macro is still good. But I follow price action, trading patterns, so my play is slightly different. Its individual risk/reward, there is no right or wrong.
One other thing I have been writing is that CCJ will drop to 45 - saying that over 2 months. Yesterday it reached 43.57. Yesterday it closed at 44.58. It needs to hold here, otherwise, 39/40 for CCJ is in play. It will drag down most U stocks with it. So lets hope it holds.
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AGE reached 4.2 last 2 days, a number it reached in last August. Just dropping on macro play. When U sector was rising, big stocks like PDN/BOE/LOT/DYL etc made very large gains. Mid caps like EL8/AGE etc moderate. But when its dropping, there is no respite for the mid caps and dropping in line with them. Not fair I would think. Only positive is that to buy from this level may give a much larger gain in short term. Hopefully we are getting closer towards bottom, maybe next week, but general markets have to behave. All the best.
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4.5¢ |
Change
0.001(2.27%) |
Mkt cap ! $174.1M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
4.3¢ | 4.5¢ | 4.3¢ | $308.9K | 7.061M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
5 | 1163879 | 4.4¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
4.5¢ | 1737424 | 4 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 1007061 | 0.044 |
3 | 302347 | 0.043 |
7 | 453442 | 0.042 |
7 | 2366208 | 0.041 |
16 | 1334903 | 0.040 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.045 | 408163 | 1 |
0.046 | 639307 | 3 |
0.047 | 712667 | 6 |
0.048 | 431894 | 3 |
0.049 | 419142 | 3 |
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