Weekly Review U Stocks - 16th Aug 2024
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Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of U stocks. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis. In my figures, I also have performances of U stocks for last year - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
.Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contains 33 stocks.
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.How are we going in 2024 - General Market
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- SP 500 looks like it has regained its mojo. It dropped close to 10% from its all time high, it was in a critical juncture where any further fall, many analysts thought it could be up to 20%. Last week it recovered later in the week and finished flat for the week. This week it finished nearly 4% up. Last week was at 5344, this week 5554. So really good in general markets. All time high is at 5669, now within 2% of it.
- Volatility Index VIX is at 14.80, last week at 20.37. So VIX after reaching 60s and creating a panic, is now telling, bulls are in control, below 15 - another positive indicator for general markets.
- Bitcoin wavering, still volatile but now volatility in 5% range rather than 20% range. At 59k currently, down from 61k last week, but still within similar zone. No strong indicator now from Bitcoin.
- Sentiment Indicator - on 35, Fear, last week 24, Extreme Fear. So sentiment changing as well, though it could be a lagging indicator.
- Russell 2000 this week played nearly same as other indices, gaining around 3%, moved from 2080 to 2141. But if commodities, small caps, risk-assets have to do better, we need a much bigger move. It has been worst performing index, and still is. Lets hope it turns. We need rotation into these sectors for some big gains
- Yields slightly down from last week, hovering around 3.9.
- Dollar Index too going like Yields,
- Gold, Silver on the rise again, Oil - no major direction.
- So overall markets looking like regaining its loss of 10% - in a slightly positive frame this week
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What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li/REE:.
- SP 500 may try to get to another all time high soon, who knows, maybe next week. So long as 5119 holds, the upward trend is intact.
- Russell 2000 is trying to recover, we need some big weekly jumps over here, 5%+, not taking 1 step forward and 1 back. Lets hope it turns.
- Economic data - FOMC minute on Thursday morning, Powell speech on Friday night - major movers, rest usual data
- Uranium Sector overview - I have been writing for couple of months, May end top, July end bottom, September end top. CCJ to reverse from here. This week CCJ played mostly around the next key level of 39/40, after reaching 35.43 previous week. So behaviour at this stage looks like consolidation. Its a key level, so some churn may happen around here - in fact its already happening. How long? I don't know. From numbers perspective, if it can stay above 35.43, the reversal play could still be happening. But if it loses 35.43, for me it would be an uncertain state and I play accordingly. On the upside, key is to get to 45. If it can reach there, very good chance of another all time high beyond 56.24. This phase I am expecting mid 60s if things go fine. But very early days, we will know more as we go. I had exited all my U stocks end of May. I was writing for last 2 months I will buy over here. I bought 40% last week, another 40% this week, rest I will see. Any weakness I will exit and then wait. We had our first green week after 4 weeks of red, so a good sign.
- Lithium Sector overview - A mixed week. Both ALB and Ganfeng made 52 week lows. ALB recovered 10% from its lows, Ganfeng is within 1% of its low. PLS buying LRS provided some impetus. So is it the bottom? Some signs, but nothing clear at this stage. Confirmation is still away. But PLS buy of LRS has given some momentum to sector. Many feel these type of actions happen near bottom. The problem is - Lithium prices continue to decline. It still lost 5% for the week, 15% for the month. Many stocks still doing 52 week lows like every other week. So we need some more change, some more data to start talking seriously about bottom. Many of the rises in Li stocks could be attributed to Technical bounce rather than Fundamental bounce, except LRS gain. So at this stage, an open mind, some signs and hope that it continues. On the positive side, first green week after 4 weekly reds, so certainly some signs are there.
- REE Sector overview - REE stocks having a similar play like Li sector. Last 5 weeks, REE stocks on average were in red. This is first time after 5 consecutive reds, we got a green. Li/U sector similar behaviour, so may be common feature. So have we seen the bottom in the sector now? Still early days, though some hope is either, not enough data to think its happening. A confirmation could be still a while away. General markets are behaving well, that can certainly help the cause.
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Personally:
This week for me similar to last week. Last week I had bought 40% of U stocks I wanted to buy. This week U stocks were in consolidation. I had thought if they don't drop, I will keep on buying. Bought roughly another 40% or so. Rest I will see how it goes in next week or two. U stocks I am playing (LOT/AGE/CXU/EL8/BMN/BOE/DYL/PDN/SLX/AEE). I like to spread, in case one or two doesn't work. Its individual choice, sometimes one stock may give biggest rise. I try to reduce risk of specific stocks not doing well. Besides Uranium, I am playing very cautiously, not playing Li/REE at this stage. Just a few stocks here and there. Other plays in health stocks, with some splattering across Gold and Oil/gas - most of these I play standard spreading the money, so don't usually write there, but currently I have got around 10 stocks in these sector I am playing there.
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Stock/Sector specific Info:.
- This week AGE got back into 3.8/4.6 zone, it had lost that last week, so good to be at least one zone rung up. A low of 3.8 this - lower zone, high of 4.3. Volume moderate, average 10/11m shares per day, one thing that is missing from the small rise till now - not backed by high volume, like before when it was declining - something to watch
- From a weekly perspective moved from 3.7 to 4.2 this week. Three weeks back we finished at 4.5, so still some catching up to do
- No ASX U stocks that I track did a 52 week high this week, again this week. We seem to be in consolidation zone now, it looks like the bottom may have happened, but best to follow price action
- U stocks down 8% for the year, so a recovery happening now
- This week average gain was 8% across 33 U stocks that I track. Last 4 weeks we were in red. So is the tide turning? Maybe. Still maybe. No confirmation yet. But good signs.
- In May I had written I had exited most of my stocks at average 6.2. Last week I wrote I had bought at 3.5 and 3.6, average 3.55, had bought around 40% of my quota. This week I picked more at 3.8, my average now 3.65. But till I get confirmation, I will play with soft hands and exit on weakness
- U future is now at 81.25, last week at 81.60, - so a small drop and no real movement. It crossed 80 in Nov end or so, hence no real movement in last 8 months - a shoot in Jan to 106 which shot up U stocks, but now in this zone of 80s for several months. A below 80 may not look good, its a psychological number, a rise above 100 may bring euphoria back
- On Friday US U were in red, though not much, average 1 to 2%. General markets still were in green. So we may have a small red to neutral on Monday. For me, key is for CCJ not to lose 39/40 range, intra-day spike is fine, but not lose it. So lets see. We are still in a better situation than a week before.
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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