Weekly Review U Stocks - 30th Aug 2024
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of U stocks. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis. In my figures, I also have performances of U stocks for last year - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contains 33 stocks.
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How are we going in 2024 - General Market
- SP 500 still playing very strongly, failed to do a new all time high this week, but not far behind. Finished at 5648, last week 5634, gain of 0.25%. A high of 5669 is waiting.
- Volatility Index VIX is at 15, last week at 15.86, so slight drop and around 15 is still very bullish. VIX too has done its round to 65, got the tick and looks like ready to serve the bulls again. It was looking vulnerable couple of days back, but only slightly, no threat.
- Sentiment Indicator at 63 Greed, last week 53 - Neutral - so in a short while it has moved from Extreme Fear, to Fear, to Neutral and now I think where it belongs Greed - its a lagging indicator so just catching up now to confirm the bull market
- Bitcoin which made some good jump last week, is again playing truant, is back testing the mid level, currently at 59k, down from 64k last week
- Russell 2000 again not doing much this week, its a concern. We want this to be strongest, for risk assets, commodities, resources, small-caps, etc. It stayed flat for the week. It finished at 2217, from 2218 of last week.
- Yields have again started going up, though not much, hovering around 3.91, last week 3.8 - so showing some divergence from stock market
- Dollar Index too going like Yields, slightly up
- Gold, Silver, Oil - no strong direction for a while now, For several weeks gold at 2500+/-, Silver 29+/-, Oil 75+/-
- So overall markets looking very strong - last week I wrote - "very positive". This week again - very positive
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What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li/REE:
- SP 500 may try to get to another all time high soon, very likely next week. I wrote this last week, but it didn't happen, so lets see, less than half percent away, so odds are good
- Russell 2000 is trying to recover, but didn't do much this week, lets hope next week is a better one we need some big weekly jumps over here, 5%+.
- Economic data - No major data this week, so technicals and sentiment may drive markets
- Uranium Sector overview - I have been writing for couple of months, May end top, July end bottom, September end top. CCJ to reverse from here. I was writing that 39/40 is critical level, and a move in either direction may provide medium term direction. Last week it was looking positive and finished at 42.61. This week there was a scare and tested the first lower level of 39/40. It came to 40.22, but this level has held for now. It finished the week at 40.84, towards the high of the day, having a green Friday. So as I wrote last week, a churn around the critical level may happen. I have also been writing till it crosses 45 and stays above that, reversal will not be confirmed. So we still don't have a confirmation. But odds that 35 may have been the bottom for this phase is still good. My play of bottoming here and topping Sep end/Oct begin is still intact. I have bought around 90% of what I had wanted to buy, 40% 3 weeks back, another 40% 2 week back, another 5% last week, another 5% this week, but I also did a good amount of trading and brought some of my averages. I do love to trade and play with 30%, many times on daily basis. Spot price is also in a scare/drama, dipped below psychological number of 80, at 79.25 down from 82.40 of last week. It needs to hold here for a reversal to U stocks. So my theory is still in play, but anything can happen, so please dyor.
- Lithium Sector overview - Another uncertain week, and still not providing a firm direction. Spot price is on the up. ALB is close to 30% up from its lows - that is one of the best results in a long time. ALB did make an effort this week to get into triple figures, but is facing a lot of resistance currently. Last week it finished at 90.50, this week at 90.25, so slightly down for the week. But I think its still very positive that it has held nearly 30% gains from its bottom of 71 couple of weeks back. Previous week we had 2 green weeks in my 90 stocks that I track after a while, before that 4 weeks of red. This week its back in red losing average 3% for the week. Last week I had mentioned how Ganfeng is diverging from ALB, from US Li stocks. Last week it finished at near 52 week low. This week it a made a fresh 52 week low, but after that is coming back. Now its around 7% from its lows, so a much better play, but still some divergence from ALB. Last 2 days were strong. So maybe it is lagging and coming back. Ganfeng is a big stock. A market leader. It has to join the party, otherwise there may not be a party. Last week I had written, this divergence cannot stay, either ALB has to come down or Ganfeng to go up. ALB didn't make any gains this but Ganfeng did. So playing to that theory that the divergence gap has to close. For a very good feel, ALB has to get near 106. I feel, Ganfeng around 35/37 zone, both around 50% up from its lows. Although that will look very good, but the drop has been brutal, still lot to cover, but there will hope and odds of bottoming and reversing for the sector would increase considerably.
- REE Sector overview - REE stocks having a similar play like Li sector. Last week we got first green after 5 weeks of red. This week we are back in red but only slight, 1% drop for the week. WA1 is back it looks, LYC doing well, BRE is coming to the party now, MEI/ENR who may be waiting for some more confirmation, could possibly start making a move this week. .
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Personally:
This week for me similar to last 3 weeks. I had bought 85% of my U stocks I wanted to buy before this week, picked up a few more, now at 90%. Rest I want to buy when the price goes up, otherwise I want to keep some ammo if prices do fall. Doing lot of trading as well, trying to pick 10/20% drops and rise before confirmation, some were successful this week, got some averages down, not much 3 to 5% average. I like trading, keeps me busy and even 5% drop on averages on big amount is still not bad. But it carries risks. Those in bull mode, buy and hold could be equally good if not more profitable. Li/REE I have not started to buy. I am getting signals of bottoming/reversal, but U sector signals are more advanced at this stage, its providing me more confidence that it may have bottomed. I know I will never pick bottom, so want to see some confirmation of trend reversal. Hopefully soon. U sector is also playing to my theory which I have been writing every week for last 3 months, so my confidence is better there. But that's just me, my bias, for all practical purposes the reverse may happen, U stocks stay here and others go on a big ride, but I will catch it, maybe miss the initial part. This week U stocks were in consolidation phase, like last week. As I wrote last week, it will not go in a straight line, till we have confirmation, and it practically played according to that. U stocks I am playing (LOT/AGE/CXU/EL8/BMN/BOE/DYL/PDN/SLX/AEE). I like to spread, in case one or two doesn't work. Its individual choice, sometimes one stock may give biggest rise. I try to reduce risk of specific stocks not doing well. Besides Uranium, I am playing very cautiously, not playing Li/REE sector blindly at this stage. Just a few stocks here and there. Other plays in health stocks, with some splattering across Gold and Oil/gas - most of these I play standard spreading the money, so don't usually write there, but currently I have got around 10 stocks in these sector I am playing there. Main health stocks - DXB (avg 26)/BOT (avg 17)/PYC (avg 7.5), Gold - PNR (avg 5.2) - , I have been writing about them for several months now, keep trading small portions and reducing average, REE - WA1/BRE
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.Stock/Sector specific Info:
- This week AGE continued to play mostly 3.8/4.6 zone, literally, low of 3.8, high of 4.4. I felt it was just playing the U macro - behaviour similar to other U stocks, volume moderate, nothing unusual in the play.
- From a weekly perspective moved from 3.8 to 3.9. Could have had 4 in front of it, but some rebalancing in closing auction pushed AGE and many other stocks few percent down. It was not much and will not have any affect say even on Monday. Last week it moved from 4.2 to 3.8 - so basicall its playing in 3.8/4.6 zone for few weeks now, consolidating, waiting for signal for next run
- No ASX U stocks that I track did a 52 week high this week, again this week. We seem to be in consolidation zone now, but watch out for next couple of months if my theory plays out.
- U stocks down 33% for the year, so a lot of ground to cover back, drop of nearly 70% from January highs.
- This week average loss was 2% across 33 U stocks that I track. Previous week was 4% down, so back to back reds
- In May I had written I had exited most of my stocks at average 6.2. Last week I wrote I had have been buying for last few weeks, my average 3.65, I traded a few this week and brough down average to 3.55, my initial average, but did not add to position. I picked some other U stocks which had a wider swing.
- U future is now at 79.25, below the psychological number of 80. It needs to hold here, if there is any chance that we may reverse and do tops in next couple of months. So I am watching that closely to make any decision. I will get out if it looks weak, and if CCJ trading supports that theory.
- On Friday US U were in small green. General markets still were in green. This week many ASX U stocks did a lower low of this phase. So it must have really tested patience of some. Not PDN/DYL/EL8/AGE/AEE/LOT etc but BOE/BMN/CXU/SLX (of the stocks I play) So lets see what's in store
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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(20min delay)