Weekly Review U Stocks - 20th Sep 2024
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of U stocks. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis. In my figures, I also have performances of U stocks for last year - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contains 33 stocks.
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How are we going in 2024 - General Market
- SP 500 this week did what it was preparing for sometime. I had been writing that after the second dip which was only 5% (first dip was 10%), the odds of making new highs has considerably increased, and it played accordingly. It went past last high of 5669, touched 5713, finished at 5702. From a weekly perspective a gain of around 1.5% from last week's close of 5626. Very bullish.
- Volatility Index VIX is at 16.15, last week at 16.56, so similar range, under 20 indicating strong bull state of markets
- Sentiment Indicator which last week went into Fear at 39, is back in Greed at 63. So last 3 weeks - Greed/Fear/Greed. It is skipping the whole Neutral state every week - volatility is high
- Bitcoin had started recovering last week and was around 60k. This week it continued to add on, taking advantage of bull market, currently at 63k
- Russell 2000 played the market. We need it to outperform so that all risk-on assets do well, resources. commodities etc. It has been weakest indicator. But at least this week played average. Gained around 2% for the week. Finished the week at 2227, last week 2181.
- Yields increased, even with rate cuts, but not much, sitting at 3.72, last week 3.65
- Dollar Index too going up like Yields
- Gold, Silver, Oil - all going up, Gold at 2647, last week 2606, Silver at 31.50, last week 31.01, lost, Oil to up at 71.77, last week 69.24. So every one in party mood
- So overall markets looking great. Last week I wrote I feel, its - "very positive". I still feel that - "very positive"
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What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li/REE:
- SP 500 after doing a new all time high this week, would be eyeing 6000 figure. It may happen, but not immediately though.
- Russell 2000 is still not doing the big jumps that is required. Not good for small caps. Not good for commodities, resources, risk-on stocks - tough times ahead. If it does not do better, it will be reflected in our Li/U/REE/Nickel/Copper/Iron Ore/Graphite etc stock prices. Only if see big gains in this index, rotation signs will happen
- Not much economic data next week, so technicals will drive the market. Powell to speak on Thursday - he can move markets
- Uranium Sector overview - I have been writing for couple of months, May end top, July end bottom, September end top. I have been writing that 39/40 is most critical level, where I expect to see biggest churn. Last week I wrote that a lot of churn may happen at 39/40 and then we may make attempt to get 45 in 3 weeks from the low of 35. The 3rd week started on Friday. We have made our first attempt at 45. It reached 44.95, algos didn't want it to go past 45. Finished at 44.40. Made a weekly 9% gain. Coincidentally last week also CCJ gained 9%. So back to back big wins. We have made 2 lows at 35. Now 2 attempts at 45. SP 500 also made couple of retraces and this week smashed past its all time high. Odds favour that we may also be able to get over 45. Next level is very good - early 50s, but may not go in a straight line. Spot price at 79.50, still below psychological 80. Odds of 35 being the bottom has considerably increased, twice it has been rejected from punters who have bought well that level. So my theory of End of Sep/Oct beginning for reaching towards high, theoretically is still there, but there could be some delays, lets see. Next week if it can hold 39/40 and more importantly, cross 45, that will be very positive. Last week I wrote I am cautiously optimistic, this week I am more optimistic and have bought more into the sector for a short-term play. I am still playing fully towards a theory that new highs are coming soon in the sector. I could be wrong, so please dyor. Lets see what happens next week.
- Lithium Sector overview - Last week Li sector had a good week, on the back of new around CATL. This week the euphoria seems to be dying away. All the gains have not yet been given away, still some big gains have been held, but now stocks easing. Some big stocks like LTR/PLS/MIN lost around 4% for the week. Which is still good compared to last week gains. The biggest worry is Ganfeng - I still believe, unless Ganfeng joins the party, there may not be a party, I could be wrong though. Last several weeks, its making new 52 week lows, nearly every week. It lost around 7.5% for the week. It is at 2% from its lows. But on positive side, there are some good signs though. Many ASX and US Li stocks are around 15% up from their lows, including ALB which I track as barometer. Also, it has shown, that one good news, a small change in sentiment to get stocks up, 30/40% within couple of days. So that is very positive for future. But the divergence with Ganfeng cannot stay. Either Ganfeng has to rise or other stocks to drop. Lets see what happens next week. General markets are good, so that is one positive to take.
- REE Sector overview - REE stocks having a similar play like Li sector. Many REE stocks were in slight red for the week. Pattern is very similar at this stage, which may not be unusual, as they broadly play similar sector. Couple of weeks back I wrote I had got out of WA1/BRE. Also have been writing that have been watching both MEI/ENR, they are still bound range, so still waiting.
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Personally:
I am mostly playing Uranium stocks currently, which I have been writing for last many weeks. Based on my theory, I feel we are moving towards the business end of that theory. I have taken a punt and have increased my holdings this week. U stocks I am playing (LOT/AGE/CXU/EL8/BMN/BOE/DYL/PDN/SLX/AEE). I like to spread, in case one or two doesn't work. Its individual choice, sometimes one stock may give biggest rise. I try to reduce risk of specific stocks not doing well. Other plays similar to what I have been writing before, but some I reduced holdings.
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Stock/Sector specific Info:
- This week AGE played nearly same as last week - in the 3.8/4.6 zone, but now playing in the middle zone, last week it was upper zone. So a bit of churn happening. So consolidation week it was.
- From a weekly perspective moved from 4.2 to 4.1, right in the middle of 3.8/4.6 zone. Play was similar to many other U stocks, so playing the macro at this stage.
- No ASX U stocks that I track did a 52 week high this week, again this week. We seem to be testing whether we have a bottom in last 3 weeks, odds have increased considerably now that we may have bottomed.
- U stocks still down 35% for the year, so a lot of ground to cover back, drop of nearly 80% from January highs.
- This week average loss was 1% across 33 U stocks that I track. Narrow range was a symptom of consolidation.
- 2 weeks back I had written my average was 3.55. I got out at 4.6 at around 30% gain. Reason being I play level to level, 4.6 is the upper level of a trading pattern Last week I had written I will buy AGE this week. I have, my average is just over 4, a new number for me to play and track, previous plays have been materialised.
- U future is now at 79.50, last week at 79.65, so much movement there, and still below the psychological number of 80. It needs to hold here
- On Friday US U were in big green, especially CCJ which is inching towards 45. Hopefully we can see some of it rub on Monday for ASX U stocks - so strong start and then give back a bit later in anticipation of US U night play.
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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(20min delay)