Weekly Review U Stocks - 25th Feb 2022
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of other U stocks besides AGE. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis.
Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
Here is the Figures and Charts that I would be elaborating:
Weekly Review
Key Observations:
Weekly Percentage change
- Average week for U Stocks
- Most stocks were in decline for the week, but stellar gains on Friday averaged out that we went with no change for the week
- Across 15 U stocks I am tracking -the average percentage change was 0%. Last week there was loss of 6%. So last 4 weeks - Gain/Gain/Loss/Flat
- AGE gained 2% for the week. Last week AGE had lost 7%, so after 2 weeks of losses for us, back to gain
- As I mentioned last week, impact of Global Fund is now over
Yearly Percentage change
- Most stocks are in red for the year
- Average loss for 15 stocks I track is now 11%. Last week it was loss of 11%, so no change there
- For the current year, only AEE, AGE and DLC in positive territory.
- AGE is doing well with a gain of 16% for the year. Last week AGE was ahead with 15% gain, so slight gain there
- AGE is highest gainer for the year
- BMN, TOE, GTR, VAL and 92e have now lost nearly 25% of their value from year start - not a good sign. From last week, GTR and VAL are new entries of shares who have lost nearly 25%
Percentage Drop from Highest SP reached after Boom Start
- All stocks much below their highest SP
- Average drop is 46% (last week was 46% - so flat here). This means most stocks have lost halved from their peak
- AGE has dropped 44%. So now we are nearly in line with others
IMPORTANT NOTE
- Shares are in volatility with drops and gains, averaging out for now
- Shares included in Global Funds ETFs had similar movements for last few weeks, now I feel they are on their own
- For U stocks, after daily declines most of the days, we have had 2 "incidents" which has given us a boost. The Kazakhstan unrest and Cameco quarterly this week. They have provided a much needed boost otherwise shares were languishing
- The Ukraine war is the third catalyst for the year. Although its unfortunate that this war is happening and people are suffering, this has provided a much needed boost to the sagging U sentiment
- Last week I mentioned how shares like CCJ etc had lost nearly all the gains from last catalyst. Eg CCJ two weeks back a very positive announcement pushed SP from around 19.80 to around 23.80, a gain of nearly $4. Last week CCJ closed at 20.22, lost 90% of gain. Yesterday it finished at 22.81 - so clawing back the gains from last week but has still not reached there. For traders these incidents may provide opportunity for swing trading
- The U Futures has really made a good jump this week. It had stagnated around $44.05. The new war catalyst have given 2 good gains on Thursday/Friday with $1 and $1.60 to close on $46.65. This has been the biggest gain in many many weeks, so a good sign there
- The most crucial aspect of boom is Supply/Demand. After reading a lot, I have come to the conclusion that this is a totally grey area with most pundits having no clue for short term. Long term supply crunch would come, but nobody knows what is that long term, is it weeks, months, years. I think unless we know more about this, we will not get a sustained. Probably the start of long term contracting may provide a view.
- The war catalyst has provided a good boost, what is important to keep in mind and track is whether this will be sustained this time or will behave like last 2 catalysts. For traders, to remember at some stage the catalyst of war may peter out - to get the timing is important for trading
Personally
- Picked up some trading AGE shares around 6.1c. Once I saw that my number 5.9 may hold, I got some
- Eg AGE is moving towards my next target of 6.7c. After that to keep an eye is on 7.8c. If I have to trade, I will do around the next point, unless market is looking good and I will continue holding
- All this time I was 70/30 - of my holding I was 70% long and 30% trading short term. Due to volatility like war, Inflation, Interest Rate etc, now I have switched to 50% long and 50% trading. Short term for me could be between a few days to up to a month.
- Everyone has own way of dealing with new conditions, some sell and sit out, some short, etc. This is my way of dealing with it. May not be best, but as I was already doing 30% trading, its still not a very big change for me
Weekly Ahead
SP
- Things are really looking good for short term.
- The key numbers for me, based on trading pattern and numbers that I follow are - 5.9c , 6.7c, 7.8c.
- The key for me at this stage is to get to 6.7c and start finishing in 7s.
- An eye to keep - We have had 3 rises from 5s to 8s in last few months. We reached 8.1c, 8.4c and 8.1c last 3 times. This is the 4th time we will be rising from 5s to hopefully another 8s. Need to keep an eye whether it will again fizzle out in early 8s or this time sustain 8s and move towards 9s. Next number for me is 9.2c.
- DOW/ASX is still very volatile. Lots of talks still around corrections/bear/recession etc. Although we had good Friday and dow had a great Friday, things should start well this week. Question is whether the volatility comes back on down side - something to keep an eye on
Prediction
- A volatile week ahead as war situation can change any time. An incident in Chernobyl - which now has acted positively by bring U into focus, can become a negative if radiation happens and brings in focus safety issues - Should not happen but to keep an eye on
- Last week I said its difficult to predict and the final result was that with ups and downs we finished flat - so in some way the words reflected that
- This week I feel stocks will make a gain. What I am not sure of is whether a good gain will be sustained or will it become a small gain
- Although Monday is looking very good, I wouldn't be surprised if there are some down days in week - its become a nature of last few weeks. Hopefully with U futures making good gains, this time its sustained
- U market has shown the first signs that it can decouple from general market. It happened first time on Thursday. Its a good sign. But it is only one day. We need to see whether this becomes a pattern or else we slide when ASX slides.
- At some stage for the general market, the moment war catalyst is gone and the effects have settled, new wave of Inflation/Rate rise is coming in March from US Fed - something to keep an eye on - whether market dismisses it, or now it is already factored or it reacts by falling
(20min delay)
