Weekly Review U Stocks - 4th Mar 2022
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of other U stocks besides AGE. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis.
Change from Last week:
This week we had VMY doing a CR. I have done a chart around the Cash balance of different shares and probability of a CR in short term.
Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
Here is the Figures and Charts that I would be elaborating:
| WEEKLY RESULT | YEARLY RESULT | HIGHEST SP TRENDS | LAST YEAR 2021 |
| Share | SP LAST Week | SP CURRENT Week | Weekly Percentage
Change | SP 01/01 | Yearly 2022 Percentage
Change | Highest SP (ATH) | Drop % from Highest SP to Current SP | LAST YEAR SP START 01/01/21 | LAST YEAR 2021 % Change |
| 92e | 49.5 | 52 | 5% | 68 | -24% | 115 | 55% | 28.5 | 139% |
| AEE | 27.5 | 31 | 13% | 27 | 15% | 36.5 | 15% | 26 | 33% |
| AGE | 6.4 | 6.5 | 2% | 5.5 | 18% | 11.5 | 43% | 1.1 | 400% |
| BMN | 21 | 21 | 0% | 27 | -22% | 43.5 | 52% | 10 | 170% |
| BOE | 213 | 227 | 7% | 225 | 1% | 308 | 26% | 80 | 181% |
| DLC | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0% | 1 | 10% | 2.1 | 48% | 0.7 | 33% |
| DYL | 81 | 78 | -4% | 86 | -9% | 137 | 43% | 50 | 72% |
| EL8 | 46 | 54 | 17% | 46.5 | 16% | 78.5 | 31% | 35 | 33% |
| GTR | 1.8 | 2 | 11% | 2.4 | -17% | 4.8 | 58% | 2.2 | 9% |
| LOT | 25.5 | 26 | 2% | 31 | -16% | 38 | 32% | 13 | 138% |
| PDN | 77 | 73.5 | -5% | 88 | -16% | 112 | 34% | 27 | 226% |
| PEN | 18 | 18.5 | 3% | 20 | -8% | 35 | 47% | 11.5 | 74% |
| TOE | 1.7 | 1.6 | -6% | 2.2 | -27% | 5.8 | 72% | 1.7 | 29% |
| VAL | 1 | 1.1 | 10% | 1.4 | -21% | 2.5 | 56% | 0.5 | 180% |
| VMY | 18 | 18 | 0% | 19.5 | -8% | 31 | 42% | 8 | 144% |
| AVERAGE CHANGE | 4% | | -7% | | 44% | | 124% |
Weekly Review
Key Observations:
Weekly Percentage change
- Good week for U Stocks, it would have been a Great week if that scare did not happen on Friday and stocks fell
- Most stocks were ahead this week
- Across 15 U stocks I am tracking -the average percentage gain was 4%. Last week there was change of 6% (so was flat). So last 5 weeks - Gain/Gain/Loss/Flat/Gain. So another Gain next week? We could live with that in a monthly cycle - 2 Gains/1 Loss/1 Flat - so we will always be ahead
- AGE gained 2% for the week. Last week AGE had same gain of 2%, so after 2 weeks of losses for us, back to 2 weekly gains, though small amounts
- Very Notable - Stocks with biggest market cap declined this week - PDN declined 5% and DYL declined 4%.
Yearly Percentage change
- Most stocks are in red for the year
- Average loss for 15 stocks I track is now 7%. Last week it was loss of 11%, so improvement there
- For the current year, last week AEE, AGE and DLC in positive territory, this week BOE and EL8 moved into positive side for the year
- AGE is doing well with a gain of 18% for the year. Last week AGE was ahead with 16% gain, so slight gain there
- AGE is highest gainer for the year
- Last week 5 stocks were in around 25% loss. This week there are only 4 stocks with more than 20% loss - 92E, TOE, VAL and BMN - worth noting that BMN is medium cap rest all small caps
Percentage Drop from Highest SP reached after Boom Start
- All stocks much below their highest SP
- Average drop is 44% (last week was 46% - so slight gain here). This means most stocks have lost halved from their peak
- AGE has dropped 43%. So now we are nearly in line with others
IMPORTANT NOTE
- Shares are in volatility with drops and gains, but on the ascend now
- For U stocks, after daily declines most of the days, we have had 3 "incidents" which has given us a boost. The Kazakhstan unrest and Cameco quarterly this week. The Ukraine war has been the third catalyst - the strongest and most sustainable by the looks of it
- The most crucial aspect of boom is Supply/Demand. There was a good rise in U prices and U stock prices on the back of Ukraine war catalyst - but still no good data available around the supply/demand. I think we will need it for much higher gains which many of us are anticipating
- Last week I had mentioned about the war catalyst and was not sure how sustained it will be. At this stage it is looking very strong and sustainable
- PDN did not make a good gain and started stagnating around 86-87c for Tuesday to Thursday. Then it declined heavily on Friday. It touched 63.5c on Friday before clawing back to finish on 73.5c on Friday. I know shorters are active. But I have a very strong feeling that if the gains of other stocks have to be sustained, PDN has to join the group with nearly equal gain. I can't believe that PDN will be left behind with a smaller gain. If PDN is left behind, for me its a sign that the gains made by other are not sustainable - just my thoughts, I could be wrong. So I am keeping a very good eye on PDN and loading up wherever I can. At this stage it is one of medium holdings (I have 3 groups - High/Medium/Low), depending on how it goes, I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes one of my High
U Futures Price
- Last week on Thursday/Friday with $1 and $1.60 to close on $46.65. This was after stagnating for number of weeks around $44
- This week it continued its upward journey to finish on $51.25
- There was rise in the first 3 days of the week, but NO change on Thursday and Friday. What does it mean?
- 3 Scenarios I can think of - Standard Retreat, Moderate Retreat and Continue Upwards
- If Standard Retreat takes place, it may fall around $47 to $48. Last 3 times it started falling down, it made higher lows. The figures are from memory so I could be wrong ($37, $42, $44). This number $47 to $48 is same vein
- If Moderate Retreat takes place, I feel it may drop a bit but will stay around $50. Because the rise has been good and is looking sustainable, drop may not be that high
- If Continue Upwards happens, and assuming that stagnation of last 2 days is just a rest, then I can see $55 to $56 are high of this phase
- At this stage I am thinking we are in for Moderate Retreat and should stabilise around $50 before the next run
- The target for the next run when it happens, after a moderate retreat, is around $60
Personally
- I sold my AGE trading shares for 7.9c, have bought back some at 6.2c average, still to pick up some more - Monday trading I am looking at this stage
- Key for me is next number 6.7c, if it crosses and looks to maintain, I would be buying around this point, so just under 7c, lets see
- On Friday I sold around 15% of my shares. I was lucky to get wind early. At this stage the SPs are below my sell point, but they may gap up. My gut feel is I will be able to get them at or below my sell price, lets see
Cash Balance Analysis for CR
- VMY is doing a CR at this stage. Initial offering was for $20m at 19c. Friday could change something, but if stocks claw back, it may be able to do raise at initial offering
- I have a medium holding in VMY
- The CR for VMY led me to asses which other stocks could do a CR.
- All analysis is just my interpretation and I could be wrong, so please DYOR. Market conditions have changed and even though some stocks we may think they won't do CR, they might - either to take advantage of good market condition from say several weeks before or to accelerate their program
Weekly Ahead
SP
- Things are really looking good for short term.
- The key numbers for me, based on trading pattern and numbers that I follow are - 5.9c , 6.7c, 7.8c.
- The key for me at this stage is to get to 6.7c and start finishing in 7s This is looking good
- An eye to keep - We have had 4 rises from 5s to 8s in last few months. We reached 8.1c, 8.4c and 8.1c, 8.1c last 4 times. This will be our 5th rise from 5s (as on Friday it touched 5.8c) to hopefully another 8s. Need to keep an eye whether it will again fizzle out in early 8s or this time sustain 8s and move towards 9s. Next number for me is 9.2c.
- DOW/ASX is still very volatile.But U stocks are sustaining and seem to have decoupled from it
Prediction
- A volatile week ahead as war situation can change any time. Although U is stabilising, but it can be immune to war conditions
- I am considering 3 scenarios - Detiorate, Stabilise, Improve
- If war situation detiorates - eg Putin uses low level nuclear weapon, attacks nuclear facility, or starts war in a new country - things could become bad and we could be affected. We should be looking at 5.9c support then
- If situation stabilises then I can see steady rise. I have a feeling in this situation my next number 7.8c will come into play, and we could be somewhere around that, couple of pips up or down
- If situation improves, I could see finally breaking that early 8 barrier and finishing above my number 7.8c. Then the next number 9.2c will be in play
- Last week I said - "stocks will make a gain. What I am not sure of is whether a good gain will be sustained or will it become a small gain". It did become small gain in the end due to Friday. Somehow my prediction has come true for 2 weeks in a row - lucky there
- This week I feel stocks will make a gain. I feel it may be a good gain. I feel it will be Stabilised Scenario I have mentioned, so we should finish on mid to high 7s - lets see
- Although Monday is looking very good, I wouldn't be surprised if there are some down days in week - its become a nature of last few weeks. Since the situation is still volatile, I wouldn't be surprised to see some wild swings. I have a feeling it will spike early and then stabilise, so at this stage I will be relying on this theory to buy or sell - it can change or I could be wrong
- U market has now confirmed that it can decouple from general market. Last week I had mentioned it was showing signs, now I feel it is nearly there
- At some stage for the general market, the moment war catalyst is gone and the effects have settled, things will reach a stage where it may consolidate, and as part of that process, fall a bit. Something to keep an eye on.
(20min delay)