AGE WEEKLY REPORT, page-8

Weekly Review U Stocks - 11th Mar 2022

Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of other U stocks besides AGE. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis.


Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.

Here is the Figures and Charts that I would be elaborating:





Weekly Review

Key Observations:

Weekly Percentage change

• One of the best weeks in ASX U sector since September run
• All stocks were ahead this week except VAL
• Across 15 U stocks I am tracking -the average percentage gain was 23%. Last week there was gain of 4%
• AGE gained 23% for the week, so right on average
• Very Notable - Stocks closest to Production - PDN/BOE had lesser gains of 18%. TOE had highest gain of 56%
• LOT made a new high ATH of 38.2c - first ATH in nearly 6 months. Last ATH for LOT was 38c

Yearly Percentage change

• First time in my Weekly report that U stocks are ahead for the Year - a very significant milestone
• Average gain for 15 stocks I track is now 14%. Last week it was loss of 7%, so a complete turnaround
• For the current year, only stocks in red are PDN, VAL and 92E
• AGE is doing well with a gain of 45% for the year. Last week AGE was ahead with 18% gain, so massive gain there
• AGE is highest gainer for the year. Even last week AGE was the highest gainer

Percentage Drop from Highest SP reached after Boom Start

• Many stocks much below their highest SP
• Average drop is 31% (last week was 44% - so good gain here).
• AGE has dropped 30%. So now we are nearly in line with others

IMPORTANT NOTE

• Shares are in strong ascend now
• Some stocks are making new ATH (LOT this week)
• Five stocks are still nearly 50% down (92E, DLC, GTR, TOE, VAL). What is common for them - Small caps. Why are they still behind - either they ran up too much in September, like an abnormal rise, or they may have more scope now to have a run relative to others - pick your choice
• For U stocks, after daily declines most of the days, we have had 3 "incidents" which has given us a boost. The Kazakhstan unrest and Cameco quarterly this week. The Ukraine war has been the third catalyst - the strongest and most sustainable by the looks of it
• The most crucial aspect of boom is Supply/Demand. There was a good rise in U prices and U stock prices on the back of Ukraine war catalyst - but still no good data available around the supply/demand. I think we will need it for much higher gains which many of us are anticipating
• Last week I had mentioned about the war catalyst and was not sure how sustained it will be. At this stage it is looking very strong and sustainable
• Last week I had mentioned around PDN how it had stagnated around 86-87c. After dropping in the new run this week, again is finding it difficult to cross 86-87 zone. For the year it is one of the rare stocks to still be negative for the year - Is it because it has a large market cap or is it representing the reality of changes we will see when the current run based on war catalyst stabilizes.
• In September run when spot U price reached $50, all stocks made their highest SP ATH. This time spot U price has reached $60 (20% more than last time), but average stocks are 30% below their September ATH (so a differential of nearly 50% between spot price and ATH, in the negative) - why is that, something important to note. Does it mean that the spot U price is losing its ability alone to move all stocks in line with it in terms of percentage gains. Or are the stocks lagging and they will catch up. If spot U price alone is not able to drag all stocks (or can only have limited drawing action), then we have to think what else we need. Also what happens if spot U price reaches $80 (33% gain). How much gain will U stocks have - more than 33% or much less than that (only considering spot U price impact)
• The most important info for sustained rise is Supply/Demand - there is not much good information out there. So runs can happen on expectations, hopes, spot U price, rumours, etc but any sustained rise may require that info. Its a tough choice - if you wait for that info to make an entry/load up more, stocks SP may have already run ahead in anticipation so gains will be less later. But if you get in but later info comes that there is no deficit for next 5 years or so, so the gains may come much later. A difficult choice - something each one has to decide for themselves

U Futures Price

• First week in 10 years or so U Futures crossed $60. Last week it finished on $51.25
• After hitting a high of $60.40 on Thursday, there was 40c decline on Friday to close at exactly $60
• Last week I had said that the target for this run is $60. So we have achieved our target of $60. So what do I think now - do I revise the target every week like some investment houses do after seeing what has happened (which exercise then becomes not actually predicting but just be reactive - what ever the price is that week, revise the target to 25% up. And keep doing reactively).
• My gut feel though I could be wrong - I am sticking to the target of $60 stabilised for some time. Next target is $80 and I feel we may need more info for that. If it does run to $80, there is a good chance shares will rise as well, but the danger is of the fall. But its all new territory and anything can happen. Again individual risk/reward in play. Please not I am talking short-term for trading perspective, long holders it may not matter, one day it should get to 80, even if it falls, good chance it may rise again

Personally

• Compared to my normal holding of trading shares, I am at 60% capacity. That means I have sold around 40% of my trading shares, mostly on Thursday. I still hold my long shares - shares that I don't trade
• Got out of VMY at 25c (17c CR shares is coming on Wednesday) , LOT at 35c, TOE at 2.4 (both for getting ahead), PEN at 24.5 (sold 60% of trading), BMN at 28c (sold 70% of holding - by best run in this phase - had loaded up heaps at 19c), 92E at 59c (it does not look like going much higher - why I don't know) and EL8 at 66c. AGE at 8.1 (50% holding of trading shares), So mostly holding beside AGE is PDN, BOE, DYL (moved VMY into this), some PEN and VAL at 1.1c - not much but it had had no run lets see
• Please DYOR and I can and have been wrong before

Cash Balance Analysis for CR

• Last week I had mentioned about VMY is doing a CR at this stage.
• This week AEE announced they are doing CR at 25c. Couple of weeks back I had mentioned that I had got out of AEE at 32c, sold at my buy price without making gains when I realised a CR is imminent.
• There are few others in my list (keeping here for reference). AEE I had said High and it came out correct.

Weekly Ahead

SP

• Last week I had said "Things are really looking good for short term" - I was lucky with my prediction
• The key numbers for me, based on trading pattern and numbers that I follow are - 6.7c, 7.8c. and 9.2
• The key for me at this stage is to stay above 7.8, even if its a consolidation and does not immediately get towards 9.2.
• An eye to keep - We have had 5 rises from 5s to 8s in last few months. This is 5th rise and still continuing. We reached 8.1c, 8.4c and 8.1c, 8.1c last 4 times. This will be our 5th rise from 5s (as on Friday it touched 5.8c), currently has reached 8.3c . Need to keep an eye whether it will again fizzle out in early 8s or this time move towards 9s. Next number for me is 9.2c.
• DOW/ASX is still very volatile. But U stocks are sustaining and seem to have decoupled from it
• U Futures price to keep an eye on

Prediction

• Volatility is reducing in U stocks but still in ASX
• U market has now confirmed that it can decouple from general market.
• At some stage for the general market, the moment war catalyst is gone and the effects have settled, things will reach a stage where it may consolidate, and as part of that process, fall a bit. Something to keep an eye on.
• My gut feel - I feel there may be some consolidation. Last September run - it was a runaway without consolidation, so when the music stopped, most shares fell over 50% from their SP reached then. We don't want another of those scenarios. But as I have said - it is an unknown territory, there are lot of things we don't know, especially around Supply/Demand - so anything can happen
• Last week US Nuclear agency managing reactors in US advised Biden to put sanctions on US Uranium - why - because he said he is not worried about supply as US already has enough nuclear in its supply that can run for few years. So they don't have to buy nuclear for next few years it seems. What about others. When are long term contracting due - these are the questions that may drive our SP more. Due to lack of complete info around those, spot U price becomes best indicator - but there is a danger with that, if it falls. But its looking good for now, lets see.