AGE WEEKLY REPORT, page-147

Weekly Review U Stocks - 21st Jul 2023

Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of U stocks. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis. In my figures, I also have performances of U stocks for 2021 and 2022 - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contain 28 stocks.
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How are we going in 2023 - General Markets-

• SP 500 stayed above 4500 and made a high of 4576 - so nothing to not like
• Upside - most talk is now for an all time high around 4800 - though it may take some time
• Down side - 4300 on SP 500 now forms a big level now if markets were to go down
• Market depth is improving and Russell small caps is also doing better than before, but lot of rotation still needs to happen for most punters to get benefit. The major rise was driven by some big Tech stocks till now.
• VIX staying below 15, in fact finished at 13.6 - is again pointing towards a bull market and this correction is just being absorbed for now
• Fear and Greed indicator is at 82, above 80 of last week, Extreme Greed, reflecting stocks,
• Bitcoin is hovering around 30k mark. It has made a number of attempts to cross 31k, but has failed till now. Another indicator that there may be some breather before the next leg.

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What will happen next week - General Markets:

• US markets had a mixed day on Friday, but resources stocks like Uranium and Lithium had a decent drop, so except some softness there
• SP 500 now the levels are very high 4300/4800. As I have been writing last few weeks, there is a good chance of consolidation around that 4350/4550 mark in the near future
• This week Fed Rate decision on Thursday. Expected 0.25% increase. The Yields have also risen last few days. Lot of other earning reports which could provide direction. Also usual jobs, housing etc data
• The best we can hope is increase in breath. Lot of resource stocks not doing well. Junior explorers not doing well. The real gain by most will be made when this gain spreads - we wait
• Seasonality says from mid-July markets fall. Markets held for the 3rd week of July. But U and Li stocks after having good gains in first 2 weeks, declined this week - Something to keep an eye if its going to fall further
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Personally: My situation is same as last week. Some long term Li stocks I continue to hold. Others playing around between U/Li/REE/Metals/Oil stock - rotating. Always looking for new stocks that have done acquisition/change in plan - there is an initial hype around it - so like to play the first stage of these stocks
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Stock/Sector specific Info:

• We are now playing in 3/3.8 zone - the whole weak play was between 3.3/3.6 and finishing in the middle at 3.5
• We need to finish over 3.8 now to get back to next zone
• U stocks lost 3% this week - 12% down for the year. Previous week 4% gain was gone this week
• PEN had a disaster news and has dropped 40% for the week. When will it become attractive? When the big traders stop selling. Better to wait for dust to settle rather than catch a falling knife
• Junior explorers still not doing well, most are with 10/20% of their 52 week lows. New money not yet coming into these risk assets as Interest rate still high and many big players waiting on sidelines still getting good money from yields
• U future gained 35c this week to reach $55.75. So after reaching $57.75, a slow decline, and a first rise this week, lets see if it continues
• CCJ made another 52 week high this week - but that love is not flowing to other U stocks in US or ASX
• I am again light on U stocks, have not bought AGE which I sold at 3.8, LOT at 20.5, PEN at 18
• The big rally would still be dependent on supply squeeze - still no clear data here around how much secondary market has still got. So at this it should be cautiously optimistic with improvements in other nuclear related news - reactors opening, govt support, bans etc - rather than believing a squeeze is one. The spot price at this stage may turn out to be the biggest catalyst. I am optimistic that squeeze will come at some stage and U stocks will rise, what I am not sure is about timing. If the squeeze was there, we would have seen some signs. A lot of long term contracts have been signed - usually these are 10 year or more contracts - if there was squeeze and utilities were finding difficult to source, we would have seen signs/rumblings. So more likely at this stage there is no squeeze.

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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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