Weekly Review U Stocks - 26th Apr 2024
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of U stocks. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis. In my figures, I also have performances of U stocks for last year - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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There are no new additions this week, and I have removed 92E, so my stock list contains 33 stocks.
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How are we going in 2024 - General Markets
- SP 500 finished this Week at 5099, staying above last weeks close of 4967 for the whole week. Weekly, around 2.5% gain. There was a threat last week that after crossing 5% drop, it may go for 10%, instead it has recovered, somewhat strongly. So the threat seems to have gone away. At this stage making a new all time high above 5264 is better than the 10% drop
- Volatility Index VIX is at 15.03 - a very good move and threat of 20 now receding, instead moved from 18 to 15 - very bullish for general markets
- Bitcoin doing wild swings now playing between 60 and 75k, currently at 63k, same as last week, no change in behaviour, but playing with slight weakness now
- Sentiment Indicator - at Fear 42, still in Fear zone, but moved from 31 last week, so instead of reaching Extreme Fear, looks like we may see Neutral first, if not Greed as well
- Russell 2000 overall not doing great, but this week played as SP 500 This week it gained 2.5% and now just above 2000.
- Yields still very high and still increasing
- Dollar Index too at a higher level and still going up
- Gold, Silver and Oil all had a fright, some decent drop, looks like stabilising
- Overall one can be cautiously optimistic this week, depending on one's risk tolerance. Odds have got better to take some risks
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What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li/REE:
- SP 500 is just around 3% below its all time high - will it have a crack soon?. Downside, if it can keep above 5000, still very bullish
- Russell 2000 is key for us, we want that to go up - its not doing great, lets hope things change - its been nearly 2 years now
- Key economic data this week around - Fed interest rate decision, at this stage odds are of no change, anything otherwise will create volatility
- Uranium Sector overview - Uranium stocks this week played as per SP 500, so was ahead. Similar to threat last week of general markets dropping further which is now receded, U stocks too may play accordingly. I use CCJ as indicator. It gained around 2.5% this week, same as SP 500. Odds of now making a new high above 52.64 is better than dropping to 45. So cautiously optimistic for the sector.
- Lithium Sector overview - I have been writing that ALB after losing 120s and falling below 118, chances of a new 52 week low below 106 was good. It came to 108 this week. Now slowly coming up. Needs to get over 118, then 128. Below this is strong to moderate weakness. So a task cut out. But a slow move is happening up, Hopefully it continues and we get towards 128 soon. Still to play with caution just based on number
- REE Sector overview - For quite sometime REE sector was in same strife as Lithium sector, if not worse. But of late it is slightly outperforming Li sector. Still a long way to go though. I have more plays in REE than Li at this stage, also a reflection of what I see in numbers. But big REE stocks still somewhat struggling - only when they make a move will the big gains come
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Personally:
My current situation this week - 20% U, 10% Li, 50% Others, 20% cash. (Last week - 0% U, 10% Li, 45% Others, 25% ). Main change from last week is I have bought some more in REE sector from my cash
U stocks I feel this week could be defining. Last week I had written I had got out of BMN, 1AE, GUE, LOT. The stocks BMN and LOT had done a new 52 week high shortly, so I decided to take profits on best performers. Now I am waiting for signs to buy back some. Main stocks I am playing CXU (big), AGE, PDN, BOE, EL8, DYL (medium),
Li stocks have reduced my holding further. 6 weeks back it was 50%, last 2 weeks 10%. Mainly because Li macro is not looking good, general markets not helping the cause. Main indicative stock I follow ALB is back in weakness zone, SQM also below 50. Playing just two - AZL/RDN
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In Others (similar to what I wrote last week).
Added some more to the existing, increasing my percentage from 45 to 50% in this fold. Increased some in ENV and bought RCR this week just on price action, the second rise from 4 was strong
REE - WA1 (holding for long from $8), MEI (from a month back at 21) , ENR ( 31, ), ENV ( 1.7, added a few more), RCR (4.6 bought this week)
Health - DXB (30.5), BOT (19.5), EYE (23), PYC (8.3)
Gold - PNR (from around 5 weeks 5.5)
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Stock/Sector specific Info:
- This week AGE played into the lower zone of 5.3 to 5.9, whole week played between 5.2 and 5.4 - so still weak
- Weekly perspective, slight gain, from 5.3 to 5.4
- U stocks lost 2% for the week, s
- U stocks up 3% for the year, all the January gains have been wiped out
- Last week I had written I got out a good chunk on Monday along with a number of stocks, at 6.1. Still waiting, its a good price range, but I want to see a turn
- U future is now at 87.35, drop from last week of 89.30 at TradingView which I follow, a slight loss for the week. It dropped from 106 to 85 - so a decent correction - anything 20% is decent, but now making a base in mid to high 80s,
- We want CCJ to stay above 45 on any weakness for a rally hope to continue. We want it to get over 50, but more importantly 52.64 to give a big boost to the sector
- On Friday US U stocks had a small gain, so expecting a good start, but Monday's are always jittery, especially later in the day in anticipation of what may happen later in the night
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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(20min delay)
