AGE WEEKLY REPORT, page-126

Weekly Review U Stocks - 19th May 2023

Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of U stocks. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis. In my figures, I also have performances of U stocks for 2021 and 2022 - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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NO DIARY THIS WEEK: This week there is no diary. Although I have bought a fair few stocks recently, I am still not sure how long I will hold, hence not putting it out in Diary. If things continue to be positive, then possibly next week.
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There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contain 28 stocks.
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..This week I have a comparison between Psychology of Market Cycle, 2000 Nasdaq and current Nasdaq in the below. Interesting.
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How are we going in 2023 - General Markets -

• This week SP 500 finally broke the trading range of 8 weeks or so. It has finally got to 4200 which I had said last week is the key
• Up side - 4300/4350 should be in play now. Down side - As long as 4050 is held it should be fine. A good buffer now
• Only issue is that the rally is still being led by big tech stocks. They are doing most of the lifting. Breadth participation is not good
• Most risk-on assets including resources have not done very well. The difference between these stocks and big stocks is now huge in terms of gains and losses for last year or so
• Most institutional hedge funds also not participating in the rally, in fact still trying to short in large numbers

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What will happen next week - General Markets:

• Monday again could be just sideways for us. Lot of resource stocks were actually down on Friday in US - so some weakness is possible
• Not much economic data that will give a very big move
• Debt ceiling is the biggest catalyst which could make a big move in markets. In 2016 as US debt was downgraded, SP 500 had lost around 20% - though it was short lived
• Seasonally May is not good month for stocks in US - (sell in May and go away). We have not seen anything like that in first three weeks. Will that change towards the end of month or we go against stats?

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Personally: My situation is same as last week, holding a fair few across a range.
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Stock/Sector specific Info:

• After a small trip up over 3.8, back to where we were trading for last 2 months - 3/3.8 zone
• There was big 1 day rise. As I have written earlier, we did not get any follow through. This has been the story for last many months - we sometimes get a rise 1 or 2 days, but that's it. Slowly stocks go back to their old levels
• U stocks lost 3% this week - 11% down for the year.
• U future no movement in price for the whole week

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.Something Interesting, especially for those not feeling very bullish:

• This shows similarity in NASDAQ between 2000 dot com bust and where we are now. Also matching it against Psychology of Stock Market which many may have seen
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.On the left is 2000 Nasdaq at certain stage. On the right is where Nasdaq is now.

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.Here is diagram of Psychology of a Market Cycle. Look at where the Complacency is and compare with above figure.


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.This is again a figure which shows on left hand side 2000 dot com bust from the point of earlier figure - marked in. On the right is what some bears are saying we are heading. Check what happens from Complacency phase in Psychology of Market Cycle.



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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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