Weekly Review U Stocks - 19th Apr 2024
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of U stocks. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis. In my figures, I also have performances of U stocks for last year - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contain 34 stocks.
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How are we going in 2024 - General Markets
- SP 500 finished this Week at 4967, getting below 5000 for first time in 2 months. Weekly, around 3% loss. So now 2 weekly losses, it has dropped below 5% which many were hoping it may hold. So a drop to around 10% is on the cards, if things don't go well, so around 4700/4750 mark. If it can return from here, first is to gain 5000, then make a new all time high over 5264. Odds at this stage of dropping is higher before a new high, but its a changing situation, so best to follow price action rather than assume anything
- Volatility Index VIX is at 18.71 - the rise which started last week has continued. Key is to keep it below 20, as it would still be bullish
- Bitcoin doing wild swings now playing between 60 and 75k, currently at 63k, no change in behaviour, but playing with slight weakness now
- Sentiment Indicator - at Fear 31, one of the worst readings of recent times, and further deteriorating from last week. Below 25, we would be in Extreme Fear. Who would have thought that SP 500 which is just around 6% from its all time high, the sentiment can be so bad. But it is, something not be ignored.
- Russell 2000 overall not doing great, more important indicator for risk-on/resource stocks. This week it lost another 2.5% and staying below 2000. The only solace - on Friday, it finished in green when other indices got thrashed
- Yields still very high and increased after high inflation reading
- Dollar Index too at a higher level and going up
- Gold, Silver and Oil doing well
- Overall extreme caution at this stage based on market indicators. Last week I had written to take caution, this week it looks like SP 500 may want to do its back test, fall around 10%, so may drag down most stocks. But its probability. Slight change in sentiment and we could be back on up path, so best to follow price action
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What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li:
- SP 500 may want to drop to 10%, 4700/4750 mark, something to keep an eye on
- Russell 2000 is key for us, we want that to go up - its not doing great, but some hope on Friday, though not enough
- Key economic data this week around - no major market moving, but usual weekly data, Fed speech etc
- Uranium Sector overview - Uranium stocks were not able to withstand the pressure of downward general markets. I use CCJ as indicator. It made a new high last week of 52.64, rising from test of 39. I was thinking - is that the rise for April that I was expecting, or is there more to come. Last week I was thinking odds are still good that CCJ might do between 55 and 60 before retreating. But this week it could not sustain the general market pressure. On a downward play, I am hoping it holds somewhere around 45. But if that fails, I wouldn't be surprised to see a play 41 this time. So caution is required anyone wanting to play short-term. A rise above 50 will bring back the U bulls and we could see the march towards 60. So follow price.
- Lithium Sector overview - Looks to be in a precarious situation. 2 years back around April 19th 2022 I was holidaying in Airlie Beach. I remember we got a massive rise around April 19th or so - most Li stocks were flying, big-big gains. Unfortunately that was the high. By the time I returned from the holidays, Li stocks had started easing. And they have been easing for 2 years now. So this time of April is not good. We made a bottom (which we thought) around Feb 6th (+/-). I was hoping that is the bottom for Li stocks. Now some Li stocks have already tested Feb bottom, many are within 10/20% of that. So a very difficult and trying time for most Li stock holders. Its not in our control. Odds of further drop is more than a rise at this stage. So will test the nerves of Li holders, hopefully its a quick turnaround, even if it falls, it comes back soon. Lets hope.
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Personally:
My current situation this week - 20% U, 10% Li, 45% Others, 25% cash. (Last week - 35% U, 15% Li, 40% Others, 10% cash). Main change from last week is I have reduced U from 35 to 20, more because of global macro factors than U factors, Li from 15 to 10, Others increased a bit and increased my cash from 10 to 25%,. Most of my play was due to general macro - where I was expecting general markets to drop, and it did. Most of my sells where I got out was on Monday morning. I may have to do another such play this Monday morning - but I will watch, sometimes futures give an indication
U stocks I was anticipating a rise in April which I have been writing since January. Stocks haven't yet rallied that much even though CCJ made a new high, so possibly some catch up to. Main stocks I am playing CXU (big), AGE, PDN, BOE, EL8, DYL (medium), 1AE, GUE (small). Got out of BMN, 1AE, GUE, LOT. The stocks BMN and LOT had done a new 52 week high shortly, so I decided to take profits on best performers, if I have to ease. 1AE/GUE - my play was not very big, I was just able to get out even across the two. My main play CXU is in wild swing of 50% - big swing, added a some more on the dip
Li stocks have reduced my holding further. 5 weeks back it was 50%, 4 weeks back 30%, last week 15%, this week 10%. Mainly because Li macro is not looking good, general markets not helping the cause. Main indicative stock I follow ALB is back in weakness zone, SQM also below 50. Last week I mentioned 5 Li stocks was playing - AZL (playing long), VUL, RDN, CY5, LLI , this week its just two - AZL/RDN
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In Others (all stocks I mentioned last week with price, so similar to what I wrote last week).
Added some more to the existing, increasing my percentage from 40 to 45% in this fold. There are a few other stocks I am playing, but my holding is small hence not mentioning. Key was me to increase my holding on ENV, a very speculative play, a very risky play, but I like to have some stocks on my portfolio with X factor, a big jump may happen, so although I have taken a calculated risk, please check your risk/reward as I feel its risky
REE - WA1 (holding for long from $8), MEI (from a month back at 21) , ENR ( 31, last week 30.5, added a few more), ENV ( 1.7, last week 1.8, added a few more),
Health - DXB (30.5), BOT (19.5), EYE (23), PYC (8.3)
Gold - PNR (from a month back 5.5)
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Stock/Sector specific Info:
- This week AGE played into the lower zone of 5.3 to 5.9, with a touch of 52. - looking very vulnerable.
- Weekly perspective, loss of 18%, from 6.5 to 5.3
- U stocks lost 9% for the week, so a very big drop, and time to play with caution
- U stocks up 5% for the year, so a big drop from 30s of January, may go into negative if things don't turn out well
- Last week I had written my average was 5.6, I got out a good chunk on Monday along with a number of stocks, at 6.1. Waiting to buy back now
- U future is now at $89.30 at TradingView which I follow, a slight gain for the week. It dropped from 106 to 85 - so a decent correction - anything 20% is decent, but now making a base in mid to high 80s, may crack 90s soon
- We want CCJ to stay above 45 on any weakness for a rally hope to continue. If it falls below that it may retest 39 level. Upside to make a new high and stay there. Hopefully Israel situation doesn't spook the market too much
- On Friday US U stocks had a small drop, so if might be iffy with small swings during the day, but not expecting a big play, most waiting for overnight US play
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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(20min delay)
