Weekly Review U Stocks - 17th May 2024
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of U stocks. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis. In my figures, I also have performances of U stocks for last year - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contains 33 stocks.
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How are we going in 2024 - General Markets
- I have been writing for last few weeks how the odds of SP 500 doing an all time high has considerably increased. This week it did that, a high of 5311 and a weekly finish of 5303. Very bullish. Weekly gain around 1.5%
- Volatility Index VIX is at 11.99, a drop from 12.55 of last week, - continues to stay in strong bull territory
- Bitcoin is back after reaching mid 50k, now at 67k, may get into 70s this week
- Sentiment Indicator - finally at Greed 65 - so the divergence which was there between market and sentiment is nearly gone now
- Russell 2000 played similar to SP 500. This week it gained around 1.5% and now at 2095, but still lagging other indicators strongly
- Yields had decent drop after good Inflation numbers, but slightly creeping up, but still down from last week
- Dollar Index not showing much move, needs to fall I feel
- Gold, Silver and Oil are back on the ascendancy, Gold over 24k, Silver reaching 32 - looking bullish here
- Last week I wrote- overall one can be optimistic this week, depending on one's risk tolerance. I feel the same this week
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What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li/REE:
- SP 500 has done a new high, many waiting for correction, but some believe it may go a bit more so that a buffer is built for consolidation, staying above 5000 will be the key to keep the bullish momentum in swing
- Russell 2000 is key for us, we want that to go up - its not doing great, lets hope things change - its been nearly 2 years now
- Key economic data this week around - Lots of Fed speech including Mr Powell, FOMC minutes - these may provide some direction, otherwise usual job/home/PMI data etc
- Uranium Sector overview - Uranium stocks still doing all right, the bullish trend is on, a brief pause happened earlier this week, but Friday US U markets had a very good day. Those reading my posts I have been saying two things about CCJ since it started coming back from 39. One that it may make a new high. Second this rally may take it to somewhere around 55 to 60 before a consolidation/correction may happen. It made a new high last week, and another new high this week. Highest finish at 53.03. Has reached 53.38. So now there is just around 3 to 4% to reach 55, very achievable. One thing I mentioning for first time is I feel this rally may end in next 1 or 2 weeks. It may coincide with sell in May theory, tax transactions on ASX etc. No guarantee, I am just thinking loud on trading pattern. U market is still very bullish, hence its best to follow price action. I am playing like that, but have that theory of topping at the back of my mind. Next big rally I think in September. Also, the theory I mentioned last week that big stocks getting full benefit of this rally, medium stocks getting partial benefit and small stocks getting no benefit is still in play. It could change, and may change, but time is running out if current rally finishes in next couple of weeks. If the rally doesn't finish, there is a good chance small to mid stocks may do better than big stocks.
- Lithium Sector overview - I have been writing for a while that ALB needs to stay above 128 to be at least neutral and get out of weakness (SQM 50). SQM is still under 50. But ALB has kept above that number nearly all week, finishing the week at 131, just over 1% gain for the week. It made couple of attempts this week to get 140, reached 137.5, but was sold down big way like before. So its currently in a zone - early to mid 130s that it has not been able to get over for months. So a real test coming up. Will it be this time? Any weakness, we still need to stay above 128. Need to get towards 150 for a strong change in the sentiment for the sector. Till then its an uncertain territory. Many ASX Li stocks had a very good gains this week - may be in anticipation that sentiment may change soon. ASX Li overall 4% gain weekly across 96 stocks, US Li 6% - so overall a positive week, but we still wait for confirmation. I am cautiously optimistic at this stage and been adding to my Li stocks.
- REE Sector overview - This week REE stocks a similar play like Lithium, and like Li, made a weekly gain of 4% across 30 stocks I track. WA1 has continued its march up, every week for several weeks its making a new high. Another high this week. My best performing stock as my average is around $8 and I have been writing about it for months. VMM/RCR also doing well. But key stocks like HAS/MEI/LIN/IXR/DRE still not doing great - when the sector will do well, I would think these stocks may come into picture. So we are not there yet - some individual stocks only doing well. So overall still caution, no fireworks yet.
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Personally:
My current situation slight change from last week, but some rotation - 25% U, 25% Li, 40% Others, 10% cash. Added 5% on Li, 5% on others.
U stocks not much play for me this week, most of my play now is in big stocks. So holding PDN, BMN, LOT, BOE, DYL, SLX, AGE.
Li stocks added VUL to my position this week - I do numbers and if some stocks is doing well for 1 or 2 weeks, I add some position. So bought early in the week, am surprised I am already up around 30% though its not a big holding. Added more into SYA/AZL this week. Also holding RDN/LRS/WR1 from before.
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In Others (similar to what I wrote last week).
Added VMM an REE stock this week, watching price action and like it at this stage, had got out of MEI, it seems it was timely as it has dropped more than 20% from my sell. Also bought some BPH at 1.9 and oppies at 0.4 - just from a technical perspective, 1.9 has held for 6 months, so will be watching that to see what to do - its a risky stock, a speculative play, better gas plays could be there, so please check. Also played some ENV more, another spec play
REE - WA1 (holding for long from $8), , ENR ( 31, ), ENV ( 1.6), RCR (4.5), BRE (285), VMM (160)
Health - DXB (30.5), BOT (19.5), PYC (8.3)
Gold - PNR (5.5)
Gas - BPH (1.9)
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Stock/Sector specific Info:
- This week AGE playing in 5.9/6.8 zone, but with no direction,
- From a weekly perspective slight drop from 6.2 to 6
- For AGE to get any meaningful rise, it has to get towards 6.8, upper portion of this range
- U stocks down 1% for the week, most stocks were generally in red, though not big
- U stocks up 9% for the year, hopefully January mid 30% gain beckoning
- Last week I had written I sold of my AGE at 6.3 from 5.9 buy as was not getting much direction and seems to have been stuck, its still stuck but thought will make another try, this week bought back at 5.9 - so lets see
- U future is now at 90.65, last week at 92.25, a small drop this week
- As I wrote above in my review, I am thinking CCJ will go somewhere between 55 to 60 and then consolidation/correct 15/20%, next rally September. But we never know. It can happen, but better to follow price action
- On Friday US U were in big green. ASX U may start to make up some losses of this week. After that Monday night US U trading direction will set tone for the week. Also hoping general markets behave, Spot doesn't drop below 90, it did gain a bit on Friday to 91 something, so lets see
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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(20min delay)
