AGH 0.00% 2.5¢ althea group holdings limited

AGH and Cov, page-14

  1. 1,235 Posts.
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    All good.

    My views are not all doom and gloom: merely prudent, which is how I believe I should be in matters of finance especially when dealing with a relatively high risk penny stock that centers around a new industry with legal uncertainties.
    Like I said, I see plenty of potential for the company, but if the current market conditions are not a reason for prudence, then I'm not sure what would ever qualify

    Just a note on the mortality rate. A virus that has one third of the mortality rate, but 5 times the transmission rate, will kill 60% more people if left to run for the same amount as time. That's what matters here.

    And again, human psychology does not differentiate much between a 10 percent chance of dying, and 3 percent chance. If given the choice, knowing the odds are higher to catch the 3 percent mortality virus, they might opt for that one above the more lethal but less likely one. But the point is people here don't have the choice: they are a facing a virus that has a 3% chance of killing them. That easily meets the threshold for human beings to go into preservation mode, as we are seeing. They're not being overly dramatic, or doom and gloom. They'd rather not partake in a lottery with 3% chance of winning, and death as the prize.

    Bottom line, for me, is that this event is affecting markets, and most likely will affect them further as stronger and stronger measures against the virus disrupt trade and industry. That was reason enough for me to exit the market. I can always reenter when I sense things are rebounding. If I'm wrong, and the stock edges up despite these head winds, I lose a bit of money but far less than I stand to lose with the current odds, staying in the market. That's just my personal take, and I consider it rational and prudent.

    Last edited by malkazoid: 31/01/20
 
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