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AGH and Cov, page-16

  1. 1,235 Posts.
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    It is a mistake to merely compare death counts. What matters is mortality rates, and ease of transmission (r0).

    The flu kills this many people because it infects millions upon millions each year: far more people than 2019-nCoV has had the opportunity to infect so far. Even though 'regular' influenza's lethality is low, a small fraction of a very large number can still amount to a seemingly impressive death count.

    For instance, this article (https://weather.com/health/cold-flu/news/2020-01-28-flu-more-deadly-than-coronavirus) claims that so far, this flu season in the US, 15 million have been infected with influenza, and 8,200 have died. That represents a mortality rate of 0.05%.

    By comparison, the estimated mortality rate of 2019-nCoV is around 2%. In other words about 40 times more lethal.
    So if 2019-nCov infects 15 million people the way flu has so far in the US, it will kill somewhere in the vicinity of 300,000 people.

    That's the comparison you need to make, 8200 dead with seasonal flu, vs, for the same number of infected, 300,000 dead with 2019-nCoV.

    You might ask what the likelihood is of 2019-nCoV infecting as many people as seasonal flu? Good question. This is where ease of transmission comes in.

    Seasonal flu has an estimated r0 of 1.3.
    This means on average, each infected person infects another 1.3 people.

    So far, we estimate 2019-nCoV as having an r0 of 2. In other words it is 65% more transmissible than seasonal flu, and stands to infect 65% more people than seasonal flu, if left unchecked.

    These two factors: mortality rate and ease of transmission, are the reason why the world is reacting to 2019-nCoV with emergency measures.
    Don't believe attempts to deceive you with simple death count comparisons. Unless of course you believe the World Health Organisation needs some schooling by the sprinkling of voices calling this an overreaction? Or perhaps the World Health Organisation has declared 2019-nCoV a global health emergency because they are part of a shadowy conspiracy to... to do what, exactly? Convince you to sell your stocks?

    Finally, China is NOT doing an amazing job at containing it. The number of infected is doubling every 4-5 days right now. That is not a Good Thing.
    If you think it doesn't matter because those people are overwhelmingly Chinese... remember China is the world's biggest economy by GDP, and hits to its economy affect all markets. China cannot combat this virus effectively without crippling its economy. I'll let you decide what that means in terms of economic outlook.


 
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