I didn't want to fear monger, but since you are asking...
I liquidated my entire position in AGH before the weekend. I remain very positive about the future of the company, but my sense of the trajectory of the virus tells me it will significantly impact most markets over the coming days and weeks, possibly months.
Markets are already taking a hit. I expect this to accelerate if cases outside of China increase, and they are bound to in at least some of the 15+ countries that have confirmed cases. The potentially long incubation period of up to 14 days (according to the current understanding) allows for many airline passengers to be asymptomatic when they pass through airport check points, even though they are carrying the disease. Add to this the statement by the Chinese health authorities that transmission can occur before carriers develop symptoms, and the odds in favour of many hidden cases emerging over the coming weeks appears high.The other dimension, of course, is a fairly pervasive sense that a global recession may not be too far down the road, with or without the virus. This creates some incentive to use the virus as an excuse to act on this sense, and leave the market. I admit this played a part in my own decision.I
hope my instincts were wrong here, sincerely. Being right is far too heavy in real human suffering, to think about the money.
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