AGL Chart, page-514

Your post is most interesting, because my belief is that years to come you will be proven to be correct.

The market both over shoots and under shoots both on the market as a whole and on individual shares.

When there is fear, doubts creep in, market participants want additional 'insurance', close attention is paid to future valuations. Sell first, think later becomes the mind set.

The market compounds near term negative news into its share pricing, there is no premium for any blue sky.

Talk about some posters have been comparisons of horse driven transportation being displaced by cars and AGL.

And yet I sit back and just reflect on the long term macro picture. And that is that underlying base load will still be required. Renewables can form part of the mix, but the system still needs to be underwritten by base load. Given that nuclear is very unlikely to ever be accepted, that means coal.
Right now the addition of renewables is suppressing pricing. But energy supply and pricing is both an evolving and intertwining situation. Just look at the UK: they though everything would be ok and now they are scrambling, look at Europe as well.

And so I much prefer starting to look at investing in a company that has the lowest base load production capabilities in Australia, when the market has such fear and hence prices the shares conservatively.

Nothing in all these numerous posts has made me change my mind.