With around 20% earning from electricity/gas retail and 80% from...

With around 20% earning from electricity/gas retail and 80% from electricity generation, the whole sale electricity market will be a main driver for AGL's profitability. In my opinion, in the short term, once Covid effect gradually becomes alleviated, business activities will return which should help support the price. In the medium term, the whole sale price will be low because solar and wind renewable sources will replace an increasing number of coal-based generations, which however are still essential, due to its reliability. In the long term, AGL will likely develop or convert its old sites to renewable generation/battery storage facility.

While structural changes are under way, I think AGL is still a good business. Apart of being a good business is the ability to adapt to the market dynamics. While whole sale electricity price might continue to trend low beyond FY21 as more renewable comes online, part of it can be offset by cost-saving program e.g. Integrated Energy will deliver a substantive portion of the total company target of 150 milliondollars in FY22.
I think AGL have the right management in place, who is proactive in navigating through the changes, to continue lowering the cost of coal-based generators to be competitive and invest in renewables. I think AGL at current valuation with PE of 13 based on FY21 earning ( between $500 million to $580 million, which I think is probably amongst the worse years and expect future years to improve) and over 5% dividend, looks reasonable.

Time will tell