AGL Future Earnings, page-2

GS updated research reports highlights the sensitivity of AGL's future earnings to the whole sale price of electricity. AGL is much more susceptible to both up and down swings in the wholesale price.

I can't cut and past, but page 4 is very useful to those that can access the report.
Basically GS values AGL on a SOTP basis off the wholesale price of energy as follows:

A$50/Mwh: $8.80
A$60/MWh: $15.2
A$70/MWh: $21.5

So there is a massive valuation pricing band depending on where the future wholesale pricing point falls.

On wholesale pricing GS notes:
"Wholesale electricity prices to rebound : The wholesale electricity pricenoutlook is still the key driver of profitability, and we’d expect a rebound in pricing at least by FY23 on fundamentals. Risk of further generator closures ahead ofexpectations following the release of the NSW Energy Plan in 2021 persists, and would accelerate a re balancing of market conditions. AGL flagged potential for a supply side response although we expect other market participants to exit before any of AGL’s assets."

Summary of the reported profit:
"1H21 EBITDA/NPAT in line; DPS weak, no change to guidance"

GS is still amongst the more bullish of the brokers in terms of future EPS estimates:
FY21 EPS $0.86
FY22 EPS $0.8
FY23 EPS $0.83