AGL Future Earnings, page-6

UBS has released its updated analyst report maintaining a 'sell' with a price target of $10.

Summary:
Underlying NPAT in-line with consensus, interim div below expectations
AGL reported 1H20 underlying NPAT of $317m, down 27% y/y and 6% below UBS
estimate. AGL confirmed it will pay-out 100% of underlying NPAT in distributions in
FY21 despite the interim dividend (41cps) falling short of market expectations implying
only an 80% pay-out. AGL announced plans to mitigate challenging operating
conditions by cutting opex by $150m in FY22 and sustaining capex by $100m by FY23.
It also stated that it is reassessing its business model and capital structure in light of the
challenging market outlook but wouldn't comment on the merits of alternative
structures until its 29 March 2021 Investor Day. We expect earnings to fall >20% from
FY21-22 due to lower electricity prices, higher gas procurement costs and retail margins
edging lower. Maintain Sell.

UBS have slightly lowered their Earnings Forecast in FY23 based on the release of the 1h21 numbers:
FY21 EPS $0.87
FY22 EPS $0.68
FY23 EPS $0.7