OK so trying to do an estimate of what this news means and what...

OK so trying to do an estimate of what this news means and what MNM might be worth. (Although I think Hard Man's calculations are probably completed in more detail and less high level assumptions).

If we use Loy Yangs's 30m tonne per year requirement at $6 per tonne of brown coal, That's $180m per year in revenue. Say costs are 60%, not sure if this is too high or not, and too lazy to look at BHP. RIO and FMG cost to income. Means shareholders get to split $72m per year in dividends per annum.

AGL is valued at 11.2x earnings, but we are a mine not the energy component, so let's use a conservative 5x multiple, as BHP trades around 10x and we sure aren't them.

So this gives me a market cap of approx $360m, and yesterday we closed at just below $40m and we haven't factored in any black coal, gas or gold.

Then I speak to a trusted broker friend and he tells me this run up is all about the court case and brown coal is of no value, but I keep coming back to why would Sedgman (Theiss / Leightons) Tata, and the Japanese + 1 be funding Exergen if there is no value in brown coal and the reduction process.

So am I really sitting on my first 10 bagger ?

Happy for people to criteque my analysis if assumptions are too stretched.