$$$agl offers $1.35billion for oilsearch$$$, page-9

That would translate to AGL dropping >15% due to the bid being over-priced.

Some say that fair value is >$1.00. A $1.35B bid would convert to a $1.20 offer price (against a 81c close, tonight).

At $1.20, (trailing) P/e would be 14.5x (vs. 9.76, now). However, any prospective bidder would need to factor for 3 events going forward:
1)
continuing sovereign risk in PNG;
2)
the prospects of the PNG-QLD pipeline proceeding (vs, not proceeding);
3)
the lead-time associated with any final "go-go" decision on the pipeline project; and
4)
the enormity of the capital raising effort associated with any prospective pipeline project (and our continuing poor track record in "national" infrastructure projects).

Fair value, adjusted for these factors is, in my view, in the 80 -90c range (ie: a P/e converted ratio of <10). On this basis, @81c, OSH is nearing full value (adjusted for all +ve and -ve risks).

I am no longer a holder of OSH.