just out of curiosity... do you shoot largely from the hip? as...

just out of curiosity... do you shoot largely from the hip? as you say - we discussed much 18 months ago, even then many of your posts were a combination of opinion with some fact... including how long LYA would take to be retired, wind capacity factors, plate capacities, BESS, PH and also upcoming projects...

here is an actual indicator of renewables installed over the last 7 years.... what a surprise... it is a whole lot more than you implied:
" at that stage we needed to build about 500 2 MW or better wind turbines over that period to get to target, we are lucky to have built 50."

1GW of wind commissioned (operational) in 2023 (Kaban 157Mw , Dulacca 180Mw , Mortlake 157MW are a few examples)
Dulacca started construction in 2021 and operational in 2023... 2 years for 180MW... 90Mw a year for a single project

2023 construction capacity was less than 2022... but it was still 1GW of additional capacity...


Just for 2024 - these wind farms are inline for commissioning and operation
Rye Park 396MW, Clarke Creek 450MW (squadron actually list it on their website as 564MW), Macintrye 1026MW, Goyder South 412Mw, Ryan Corner 218Mw

as to construction time frames... Squadron Energy in their November 23 update for Clarke Creek:


6 fully erected turbines in two months... at 4.5Mw capacity = 27MW or 13.5MW a month... for one entity (36 turbines a year run rate)

From Acconia website (Macintyre Wind farm)

3 turbines a week and 5.7MW units to boot = 17.1MW per week (156 turbines a year run rate)

As I have suggested previously, with sufficient geographic diversification and scale, wind can (and IMO will) provide suitable base load capacity... Clearly access is a large component of installation timeframes as the two examples above illustrate - but to suggest we are not able to install sufficient capacity... even with a ~40% capacity factor in consideration to reduce nameplate to likely output - in time to replace coal power early, I think is not seeing the forest for the trees.