I agree with most of what you say, however...From AEMOSimple...

I agree with most of what you say, however...

From AEMO

Simple economics of supply and demand only suggest prices will increase when supply from coal power plants is decreased IF there is no other increase in supply from other sources OR demand increases... there is quite the pipeline of solar currently in planning and construction and already solar is causing negative prices in most states during daylight hours. Add to this the extreme levels of interest in the various renewable energy zone auctions across NSW AND the off shore wind zones of Victoria and NSW, plus renewables being developed outside of these areas... there is going to be quite a lot of supply incoming to replace the capacity lost from Yallorn and Eraring.





I agree that there is insufficient capacity of BESS available for storage to make a meaningful impact to overall supply mechanics, but they are already performing very key roles in FCAS services (now providing 50% of total service) AND arbitrage...most importantly for businesses operating them - they are also HIGHLY PROFITABLE.

Considering the small scale of BESS presently in operation, the fact that the below graph already shows visibly that BESS are present and predominantly operating during the evening peak when the NEM spot price provides best return and charging during periods of negative price.


Even our own Torrens Island BESS shows the current benefit of BESS isn't prolonged discharge to displace baseload... but to remove the peaks:

Fact is... coal has a place - particularly until an alternative form of baseload is available (I am looking to wind - both offshore (which is more consistent than onland in generation) and onland (particularly where profile is inverse to solar - best wind at night - GNX's Kidston Wind project is an example of this... as will large parts of QLD be for that matter)... we will generate revenue from coal for years to come, but the days of coal power being a profit cash cow are numbered as the services they offer are rapidly being cannibalised by newer forms of technology. I do not agree that our plants will be running longer



Once the peaks have been smoothed out by BESS (or other despatchable generator) systems, then we will hopefully start seeing them being used to stop generators being curtailed (allowing them to increase capacity output closer to theoretical values) and also perhaps having some sort of AEMO facilitated service where they are compensated to only discharge at set hours of where coal traditionally does the heavy lifting...

DYOR