agl's oil figures, page-5

I have spent a few hours researching to find some answer to the CBM question. Unfortunately, I could not really find any. Below I hazard a wild guess a the potential of the CBM block and then raise a few tit-bits of info I found. Unfortunately, it was a pretty fruitless couple of hours.

The CBM portion of 103 is approximately 100 sq kms. This small area – given talk of coal seams being analagous to producing coals in QLD – could contain quite a bit of gas though.

For example,

In calculating total gas in place estimate (NOTE: not reserves)

BOW energy estimates 5.6-6.3 PJ/Sq km in its tenements
EPG estimate in it French Europe find 8.5 PJ/sq km.

So in that approx 100 sq km of PEL103 there could be anywhere up to 800PJ. Lets say there is 400PJ GIP. Lets assume 20% get converted to 2P reserves = 80PJ. Last time I checked, 2P reserves were capitalised at 2 million/2P reserves  INP share should be worth .375*80*$2million = $60million.

I know the figures are hazy when we don’t have any technical data. All I want to point out is that there could be a significant benefit to INP shareholders,especially given they just have to sit back and let the experts do it all. Also, I would doubt AGL would go to this much effort unless they though there was upward of 500PJ GIP potential.

In the course of my research, I couldn’t find any nearby CBM wells, either side of the border. Interestingly, AGL has a 2% stake in ATP259P just across the border, where Santos and Beach are busy drilling for conventional resources. Got me thinking whether they got their hands on some data through that to suggest PEL 103 is a goer...but who really knows.

http://www.beachpetroleum.com.au/files/permits/permit_coopereromanga_naccowlah.htm

On the SA side, there are very few active CBM explorers from what I can tell. Strike oil has applied for PELA 96, which contains CBM potential. Other than that, even though there are lots of coal seams in the Cooper, there are few current developers of CBM (from what I can find). This leads me to think AGL are trying to get a first mover advantage in the area by a strategic investment in INP. If the coals there look exciting, they will be primed to take over some of the smaller operaters in the Cooper before the market can react properly. The other exciting thing about the area is is connectivity with the major gas markets. Anyway, its just speculation but thought I’d bring it up.

Here’s an interesting document that also list CBMers operating elsewhere in SA. I would be interested to hear of any other companies people know of operating in the Cooper.

http://www.pir.sa.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0015/71016/MJ47_coal_seam_methane_potential.pdf