Very good post & comparison .. Only thing is we are 3-4 years behind & the upside is 15 times .Â
MIN - EBITDA is $280 mn to $320 mn for FY 2019 . Market Cap is $2,340 Million .Â
AUZ Projected EBITDA $295 Million , AUZ  Market Cap is $135 mn ...Potential upside using the EBITDA vs Market Cap logic ,  2340/135 = 17.3 times , i.e approx. 85 cents  (ignoring the Flemington & Thackaringa assets & assuming both the companies have equal residual mine life & similar products) . Obviously , that's the price when we are in full production & all contingencies are taken care of & are achieving the targeted EBITDA .Â
So , for share price to move from .050 as on 22nd Nov 2018 to .850Â 22nd Nov 2022 , we will have 4 years during which we will have to tick of the following goals :Â
- Attain SKI Option Or Asset Money       31 December 2018               12 cents
- Attain Funding                      31 Mar 2019                     16 Cents
- Commence Plant construction         30 June 2019                    20 centsÂ
- Finalise Plant Construction            31 Mar 2021                     40 cents
- Start Production                    30 June 2021                    45 Cents
- Ship the First Shipment              31 Dec 2021                     55 Cents
- Have first year Production Revenue     30 June 2022                    70 Cents
- Will be in full swing in Production for Year 2 & calculate the Projected EBITDA .    22 Nov 2022       80-85 centsÂ
It will move from a multi bagger at this stage to a standard good value mining stock once the project is de-risked once financing is secured. Stock price can go up to 3-4 times ( previous high & upwards) till the date of commissioning of plant. Once the construction starts it might settle down a bit & it will almost double by the time plant is built ..Â
Also , above price points / numbers is just my random analysis based on EBITDA Comparisons of two companies & not factoring in any other variables / industry differences & other projects both companies ( MIN & AUZ) have .Â
CheersÂ
TG
DYOR & Happy Thanksgiving ! Thanks to all for all their informative posts ( including Nay Sayers). Life is short & live with gratitude
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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33 | 45124111 | 0.006 |
16 | 32250199 | 0.005 |
9 | 8654750 | 0.004 |
4 | 2960000 | 0.003 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.009 | 4323654 | 9 |
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