Very good post & comparison .. Only thing is we are 3-4 years...

Very good post & comparison .. Only thing is we are 3-4 years behind & the upside is 15 times . 

MIN - EBITDA is $280 mn to $320 mn for FY 2019 . Market Cap is $2,340 Million . 

AUZ Projected EBITDA $295 Million , AUZ  Market Cap is $135 mn ...Potential upside using the EBITDA vs Market Cap logic ,  2340/135 = 17.3 times , i.e approx. 85 cents  (ignoring the Flemington & Thackaringa assets & assuming both the companies have equal residual mine life & similar products) . Obviously , that's the price when we are in full production & all contingencies are taken care of & are achieving the targeted EBITDA . 

So , for share price to move from .050 as on 22nd Nov 2018 to .850 22nd Nov 2022 , we will have 4 years during which we will have to tick of the following goals : 

1. Attain SKI Option Or Asset Money           31 December 2018                             12 cents
2. Attain Funding                                          31 Mar 2019                                        16 Cents
3. Commence Plant construction                 30 June 2019                                       20 cents 
4. Finalise Plant Construction                      31 Mar 2021                                         40 cents
5. Start Production                                       30 June 2021                                       45 Cents
6. Ship the First Shipment                           31 Dec 2021                                         55 Cents
7. Have first year Production Revenue        30 June 2022                                       70 Cents
8. Will be in full swing in Production for Year 2 & calculate the Projected EBITDA .       22 Nov 2022             80-85 cents 

It will move from a multi bagger at this stage to a standard good value mining stock once the project is de-risked once financing is secured. Stock price can go up to 3-4 times ( previous high & upwards) till the date of commissioning of plant. Once the construction starts it might settle down a bit & it will almost double by the time plant is built .. 

Also , above price points / numbers is just my random analysis based on EBITDA Comparisons of two companies & not factoring in any other variables / industry differences & other projects both companies ( MIN & AUZ) have . 

Cheers 

TG

DYOR & Happy Thanksgiving ! Thanks to all for all their informative posts ( including Nay Sayers). Life is short & live with gratitude