Very good post & comparison .. Only thing is we are 3-4 years behind & the upside is 15 times .
MIN - EBITDA is $280 mn to $320 mn for FY 2019 . Market Cap is $2,340 Million .
AUZ Projected EBITDA $295 Million , AUZ Market Cap is $135 mn ...Potential upside using the EBITDA vs Market Cap logic , 2340/135 = 17.3 times , i.e approx. 85 cents (ignoring the Flemington & Thackaringa assets & assuming both the companies have equal residual mine life & similar products) . Obviously , that's the price when we are in full production & all contingencies are taken care of & are achieving the targeted EBITDA .
So , for share price to move from .050 as on 22nd Nov 2018 to .850 22nd Nov 2022 , we will have 4 years during which we will have to tick of the following goals :
- Attain SKI Option Or Asset Money 31 December 2018 12 cents
- Attain Funding 31 Mar 2019 16 Cents
- Commence Plant construction 30 June 2019 20 cents
- Finalise Plant Construction 31 Mar 2021 40 cents
- Start Production 30 June 2021 45 Cents
- Ship the First Shipment 31 Dec 2021 55 Cents
- Have first year Production Revenue 30 June 2022 70 Cents
- Will be in full swing in Production for Year 2 & calculate the Projected EBITDA . 22 Nov 2022 80-85 cents
It will move from a multi bagger at this stage to a standard good value mining stock once the project is de-risked once financing is secured. Stock price can go up to 3-4 times ( previous high & upwards) till the date of commissioning of plant. Once the construction starts it might settle down a bit & it will almost double by the time plant is built ..
Also , above price points / numbers is just my random analysis based on EBITDA Comparisons of two companies & not factoring in any other variables / industry differences & other projects both companies ( MIN & AUZ) have .
Cheers
TG
DYOR & Happy Thanksgiving ! Thanks to all for all their informative posts ( including Nay Sayers). Life is short & live with gratitude
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Very good post & comparison .. Only thing is we are 3-4 years...
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Last
0.7¢ |
Change
-0.001(12.5%) |
Mkt cap ! $9.789M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
0.8¢ | 0.8¢ | 0.7¢ | $7.559K | 1.008M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
33 | 25996116 | 0.7¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.8¢ | 1162005 | 9 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
32 | 25796116 | 0.007 |
26 | 42654224 | 0.006 |
13 | 5581699 | 0.005 |
9 | 6584859 | 0.004 |
2 | 2400000 | 0.003 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.008 | 1042005 | 8 |
0.009 | 5394092 | 16 |
0.010 | 3248924 | 17 |
0.011 | 1742952 | 11 |
0.012 | 4297167 | 7 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 23/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
AUZ (ASX) Chart |
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