I understand the desire for a Q1 update, but I don't understand the apparent backlash and criticism being vented.
BAL hasn't previously provided an update or forecasts at the AGM, nor gave any indication one would be made - so no breach or failure as far as I'm concerned.
They are still the same company that delivered increases of 342% EBIT, 95% Revenue and 331% China Revenue in FY16.
There were a lot of positives out of the meeting, which I've reiterated below.
I agree that reading the presentation and press releases in isolation makes it hard connect with all the positives this company has going. I'm glad I made the effort to get there!
With the level of info discussed at the meeting, I don't need any forecasts to workout this company is still in a growth phase and hasn't plateaued - but as always, DYOR.
- The significance of achieving #1 toddler milk and cereal in Australia and the leveraging this will bring:
- Consumer (China) preference for purchasing the best, and relying on recommendations of friends and families.
- BAL a priority Top 3 customer for manufacturers supplying China market (new Chinese regulations)
- #1 brand compelling reason for retailers to stock BAL (e.g. Woolies)
- #1 brand also compelling reason for suppliers to deal with BAL
- Continued consolidation and penetration of China market:
- China is bigger/equal to all other global markets combined.... >100k stores, BAL in approx 5,500 of them - growth opportunity is huge
- Stats starting to come through from relaxing one-child policy - last year 29% increase in birth rate
- New regulations will consolidate brands from >2000 to <250, this will support and build BAL growth in China
- BAL are on top of 11/11: targeted marketing and increased inventory to meet demand
- Board not resting on laurels:
- Increasing target for Australian penetration from 4,400 to 7,000 distribution points (59%)
- continue to nurture other markets, SEA, Singapore, Vietnam
- Increased organic milk supply has enabled bringing Fonterra into the mix (IMO this is one of the most important considerations for continued growth in FY17)
- Fonterra will take BAL to new levels
- production schedules intended to prevent 11/11 out of stock issues,
- increased inventory will enable meeting of optimistic opportunities
Hope this helps remind you why BAL is a great company that's here for the long term! :)
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