PAR AGM 2023 - MOZZ NOTES PART 3
THE WALK THROUGH
In this final part I'll cover some anecdotal points...just some general observations and thoughts.
Note: that last part was supposed to be "Part
2 - Questions and Answers". Yes I told off my copy editor...
(Yeah that's me)
PAR is for now, a small company, they do outsource a number of functions and tasks. I'm more forgiving when things go a bit awry like the room being a bit too small and it only being standing room at the back and no milk for the tea as Mr M. pointed out to me.... This isn't at all a major thing...sure it can be increased/improved but at the end of the day, we have plenty of future events where PAR will be more lavish... let's get through the important stuff first then worry more on the optics.
Firstly a story...
A STORY...
I remember my first ever PAR AGM back in 2019...I had only been to a handful of AGMs before...one in the distant past was a super large one - Telstra..
I was a dot out of thousands, I went with my dad...and I remember asking a question, the directors gave me a big smile and were happy to answer my question. I've been also to such a tiny company's AGM that there was only me and one other shareholder present! It was held in a small boardroom and there were like 8 of us in the room!
Just a dot in the room...Telstra was like this....
Anyway, getting back to PAR in 2019...I was borderline should I go...or should I not go..? Will I really get anything out of it...they are going to tell me stuff I can read in the Annual Report! Is it worth taking half the day off and going in? I don't know many people anyway! I might get bored? What will I learn if anything?
It was one of the best decisions of my life.
It was there at that meeting for the very first time I hear Paul speak...but I heard him tell us so much that wasn't in the annual report...that wasn't in the Quarterlies...he mentioned Dr David Felson for the very first time. I speedily jotted down that note in very messy writing on my notepad not even taking my eyes off Paul as I wrote 'David Felson' in case I missed something else Paul was going to say...
When I got home that night I eagerly looked up this 'Dr Felson' sheepishly wondering why I hadn't heard of him before...
I'm sure there are at least 100 of you that haven't read my Good Doc posts, I will post it at the end of this post. In truth, in the past I have written
three full posts on Dr Felson and as my research has broadened, I have not at all kept in touch with his latest publications and papers. As far as I know he is still helping us on occasion. I cannot here and now express to you just how valuable an asset he is to have on side....there are very few as qualified and as talented and of course as influential in the OA space as this Doc.
At the same PAR AGM in 2019, I managed to meet some of the directors at the time, I had a super beaut 15 min chat with Dr Ravi Krishnan and I even had a 10 min super chat with Greg Diesel Williams and heard is account one on one! You hear the footballers stories in the papers, you see them running a bit in media videos...but when they look you them in the eye and they tell you how their lives have been changed for the better...well a tear comes to my eye as I know how we as owners are going to change the world one day. (Sure, spec statement but I think there is material fact around that subject to a number of milestones happening etc just re-read that last structural announcement and take a gander of the upcoming MPS ann. [spec statement, completely subject to data]).
So what's the point of the story then? The PAR AGM is a place to get a further sense of are we real...can we make a difference?
THE NEXT DR FELSON MOMENT?
So I had another moment that brought memories back of 2019 AGM...Like the story above where I learned more about Dr David Felson for the first time, I heard about another guy we have on our books....
LESS this...
MORE THIS....
Dr Skerrett in the AGM just gave us the briefest introductions prompted by Paul ...
Here is an example of his latest writings:
As Dr Skerrett mentioned, his experience in this area is unquestionable. These are the KOLS...these are the experts PAR is employing...this is the sheer talent they have seconded.
Remember this, I will come back to it.
THE GOOD
Overall I was happy, there was a good overall atmosphere. I thought Paul answered the questions thrown at him really well. Both Beverley and Donna did a great job and gave us some good insight on the programs and what's happening.
As someone else commented I also saw Michael Goldberg at the back of the room, I was lining him up to have a chat later on BUT he didn't stay...dang I missed him.
He is very hard to get hold of. But I very much enjoyed just seeing him smile and wave at me...maybe that was a knowing look?
Remember just above that I was writing about the expert KOLs and consultants Par have working for them...do you really think that Paul will let the corporate side slide for too long....yes he has a huge amount of vested interest but even that aside...this is his baby...he will know when to strike a deal without leaving too much on the table.
THE BAD
DId I say there were some negatives?
@goldmad no getting too excited ok?
Now I don't want to scare anyone...but I want to be balanced. What I learnt from the day is that we are a Bio Pharma play...
Err Mozz? Didnt you know that after all these years??
No - What I mean is that I had some personal targets in my head going into the meeting, I came out with at least some of them being pushed out.
Yes it's a bit of humble pie that I need to eat...let me explain.
I was always under the impression that PAR could be in a position to apply for an Accelerated SOOOOON...When I mean soon, I had my fingers tightly crossed for maybe April...perhaps May...more realistically Aug?
I'm not sure now.
But Mozz, that's not good right?
Well yes and no...what it means is that I have to reset my expectations.
Yes of course this is a bright company with incredible prospects, that hasn't changed, in fact after Wednesday...I think it is a brighter still....BUT....Bio Plays are LONG plays.
I spoke to the lovely Reg team and I was chatting about the Mozz-star-in-his-eye timetable of AA...they quietly stated that it would be more like the middle or towards the end of 003 that something like an AA might be considered. My jaw dropped...they looked at me funny and said "You look shocked".
I said duh yeah.
They said why?
I said because I always thought AA would be filed the
minute second PAR started her 003 trial??!!
Not true, they need to bring in data first.
Mate.
Ok so that's not the end of the world as even towards the back of 003, it would still save us up to a year.
How?
Well after the last person is dosed we have some time to compile the said data...we then wait for the NDA read out...we then go into Marketing...then Labelling...then we start.
Now I haven't given up...I think there is still at least
some chance of it being filed
before the end of 003 and if the data comes through nicely in batches and maintains consistency...well we could be good to go in terms of a potential AA earlier?
What this negative means for me is that I have to be patient...it's a long term play, I have been professing this for some time....
However, AA isn't the only horse in this race.
AA isn't the only horse!
There is a real chance of a deal...the data is creating a stack of interest, we got a real sense of that at the AGM...it may not be long before something strikes, the chances go up as the months go by. Sure I know that this is not everyone's cup of tea....not everyone can wait for a while.
Autoinjectors was another one that caused me and Anchor Man to both simultaneously wince at the exact time....it's a negative...but PAR will work on it...dont worry HC Par-isians...The Mozz Snoop Dog is on the pursuit case, it wont drop off the radar and we will ensure they are ready in the distance when it is time to be ready to roll.
The long term impression I'm genuinely getting is that once this thing genuinely strikes, well, I can't express to you what will happen in terms of progression and material sales...PAR uses the most conservative penetration rates and revenue profiles, the figures still blow out to Billions.
This doesn't even remotely consider things like making the market (eg like Humira did for RA) and the VAST OCEAN of off labelling....guys, I'm telling myself to wait for longer...but those that are left standing in the medium term future, they will be so profoundly rewarded in my view. It really could be a case of companies like PME going from 73 cents to $90 in 9 years....I concur, not all of you reading this can actually wait for 9 years...I cant speed that up, if I could you know I would....
The feedback PAR are getting from KOL's, from patients, from the seminars they are attending..from the parties they are dealing with and from people associated in the industry is quite simply profound.
I genuinely do seek out negatives and of course the glaring one is more on the Governance side, but I genuinely believe PAR are and will be addressing it...I feel this won't be too long though, it won't be imminent......yes again we need to observe that P word, Patience...it's hard I know, it's frustrating I know...I too have been diluted and smashed...but guys...I know what's coming in the distance...(my views). Maybe I am too granular...I should be more like my holding of DEG.AX...I literally forgot about it for 7 years...and hey, presto. Nah I'm way too vested with PAR...but it doesn't mean I need to react every time we have a red day....ugh - yeah, too many red days....
Christopher Mayer is a good read, he has kept me sane...in the past I have also been a brief subscriber to
Motely Fool and came across a great company potential marking sheet...I rated PAR at one of the highest ratings using their template...yes I would be biassed...but also a resounding YES I have done my research...I again got feedback at the AGM from a professional analyst and it did wonders for my little ego. You know I am humble...I try not to let it go to my head and try to stay grounded (Shout out to Anchor man here).
I present my research and my take...maybe I'm wrong...but Im vested. I keep saying to you though...give me the negatives....you have been in the last few months and I know PAR are aware of them, have no fear about that. Now lets see and ensure they get addressed, yeah?
I had a really good day at the AGM, I learnt a fair bit...I learnt that we are on a great railway track and though the journey is longer and boring for many...lacking immediate excitement, I kinda feel like Friends and co...I get that crazy tingling feeling down my spine...
I asked my question with passion...it went for a full 4 minutes, I had memorised it...usually when I do a speech I practice to remember it, to adequately memorise it......but when it comes to PAR science? I don't need to practice...I shout it out, I can recite it on demand...give me an audience..send me people that are new to us...
I talked to Paul.
I talked to the patients and not just Knee OA patients, there were guys there that also had RA and even one guy that had upper spine OA and subsequent pain, a surfer that is back out on the ocean waves living life to the full again....these are the stories I want...these are the stories that I long for AT SCALE.
Imagine the pressures and torque vectors on the spine?
...I also talked to the Reg team and spent some quality time with the lovely Beverley H...
I even met my friend Patient Zero as I like to call him, the quietly spoken pal who had iPPS a long time ago and is still loving a pain free life....let me say that again....a pain free life...NASAID free! Yes even Mr S. was there and I caught him smiling a number of times through the AGM. He is still raving about the treatment.
Guys,
Nothing on Wednesday made me fear that our future couldn't just be quite spectacular one day...
- Mozz
DYOR
(20min delay)