agm notes for the more discerning

Now that some have had a chance to put their pom-poms down, I'll offer a few observations that explain why the share price didn't jump after the AGM.

First off, as I predicted here, the goodies for management were passed. Shareholders voted as usual to give them everything they asked for despite a stock price that is its lowest since May 2003. Give them more while we lost money? Whatever. If you voted for it, don't complain later.

I predicted over and over they will have to go back to the well for more money. They said consistenly in past announcements they believed they have enough money to finish the trials. But now for it's a qualified statement. They are confident they have enough money to complete the FIRST filing.

That qualifier was not consistently there before. I stand by my prediction - they won't have enough money to complete the trials(s) plural (all the trials).


More slips in the timetables (they are consistent with that). Vitiligo was orginally hoped to be started in October, now it's early 2011. Tell me that has never happened before.

Also, now they just hope to finish the EPP European confirmatory trial in the first half of 2010. This comes after they were going to file the MAA by 2011 (as in by the end of this year). Then it was pushed back to Q2.

I now believe there is an outside chance (my own opinion here) they won't file this before the end of 2011.

Remember I was the first to predict they would not file in 2010 a few years ago. Others disagreed with me. That was an easy prediction. Thank you very much.

Some are rejoicing the huge price tag of this drug. I guess you aren't thinking that there will be virtually no off-label sales for years at this price point. I am predicting PLE might be dropped in the future. That would leave vitiligo and cuv9900 as the hope for off-label usage and those prospects are years down the road.

The prospects for the company are very good LONG-TERM but the reason the stock price is still at .175 is the nonstop delays and the fact that off-label usage is years down the road. Doubt me? Look at what share price was when analysts said the price point might be around $300 per implant back on in the old days. Take a look at the old Suisse report from 2004 where their analyst had a model of the stock price being around $8.50 by now.

The stock price should not get much lower than this, but it will be dead money for weeks yet barring a huge positive surprise that comes out of the blue.

The discerning will play this accordingly. This is a good long-term (very long-term) investment. I am not disagreeing with that. And I do stand by my prediction that this will get approved for EPP.

Investors are much more impatient than they were even a few years ago in the biotech sphere. They won't jump on this stock until it's close to a run. The run will come, but not for awhile still.

Final thought: With cuv9900 it seems like we're going around in circles like the dog chasing its tail. We had the London lotion trials way back in 2005 and current management nixed that. I was told by the president of the Florida supplier that he believed that application worked well. He didn't understand it all.

Now we've got new compound for the same purpose? Maybe the new compound works better for transdermal applications. Who knows, but when they nixed the lotion trial, a lot of air got sucked out of this. Starting cuv9900 is great but its years down the road for any possible approval.

You'll have plenty of time to buy more shares on the cheap if you like. I don't see this making a major move anytime soon.