The AGM presentation to the ASX today was most disappointing.
No outlook, nor a trading update - signalling that business is very mixed (and/or unpredictable) at best.
Revenue for FY15 was $32.0m, FY16 $34.0m FY17 $33.0m - so I am calling 3 flat years
with FY18 - I have no knowledge but am calling at $31.0m-$34.0m - really a 4th flat year possible?
On costs - Wages, Admin and Rent are the key ones (note Rent is lower of CPI or 4-5% - so assume CPI only, with Wages and Admin 2.5-3.0%?).
One big plus (AR note 4.1 and 4.2) saying deferred consideration has stopped bleeding P+L (previous management).
My valuation is $0.55-$0.70 - especially given debt of $9.2m (only offset by $2.1m of cash).
However, some good opportunity if takeover is by synergistic buyer - I could see $0.80-$0.95 maybe $1 at the end - would be $1.7m trailing PAT to EV of ($25.95+7.1)=$33.05m = 19.44x PAT/EV - I hope my maths is right.
Next stop $0.55-$0.70 without new information. (12x-15x?)
An upgrade in forecast to Rev $36m-$38m with costs very well controlled could see $1.00-$1.10?
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Last
35.0¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $13.83M | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| 0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | 0 |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37901 | 35.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| 39.0¢ | 36625 | 1 |
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| Last trade - 16.21pm 08/08/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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