agm presentation

It would seem BUY is discussed more on KEY so I thought a bit of discussion over here was needed.
First of all I cannot get excited about anything on BUY's agenda right now and I think the death by a thousand cuts of sp is also showing that. The risk reward ratio has gone the wrong way since the excitement of KN1 and pre Wisteria.

I once dismissed Utopia as a useless exercise but I'm beginning to think it may be BUY saviour. They are saying that they will develop this field in 2009. IF they do and get a flow of a 100's bbls instead of 40 obviously life becomes easier for BUY even at lowly A$70 bbl.

BUY are targeting KN1 sales at the end of 2009. This has been a big disappointment. Since discovery there has been zip. I just wonder if potentially selling much of the gas @ $3mcf has discouraged the operator.
That said, I also see KN1 and Nyuni Block as a possible asset that could be sold if BUY needed cash.

The presentation states revenue to move to +$1m at end 2009. Now 2mmcfpd gas (5% of 40mmcfpd) from KN1 should be about $2m pa to BUY. Throw in Utopia $600k and revenue should be around $2.5m pa.

EGO have been promising to drill a well in WA for BUY since Adam played fullback for the All Saints. I believe it when I see it. EGO has bad Karma.

PEP11 is the only asset that has the ability to catapault sp in short/medium term. But I do worry about MMR.
MMR/Advent recently announced funding of $7m for PEP11 but it was 'conditional' and I bet those conditions include finding a rig slot and a JV partner. It is still possible though and if its really going to happen should be announced before about March 09.

They do have an interesting permit in offshore Boneparte Basin in WA but really, nothing is happening there.

Finally cash. Its running out. they will have $.5m after Dec. I do think they will survive but the options are not great. If they announced PEP11 then they could raise cash on the back of that excitement. They could sell Tanzania. Whats it worth? $5m, $10m, nothing? Sophisticated investor raising @ 1c? I'm not hopeful that directors will put in. They still have the smell of self interest from their DLS days. Havent seen much director buying to support sp of late.

Gosh it was slow day
Cheers all