Absolutely understand all that, but the feasibility of the staged expansion was based on the fact that MGT would spend ~$600mil now, make some money, and then spend another ~$1.2bil in a few years, when the cash is coming in. Does the project still make sense at $70 IO price if that up front capex is $2bil?
I assume it's doable (likely with funding from both debt and equity/JV), but obviously it's a higher risk proposition, and will take a much longer time to become cash positive.
I'm not in finance or mining, so I have no context on what the industry is thinking at this stage (although my brief reading tells me no one knows what China will do, so everyone is freaking out in the short term, but long term seems okay).
So I'd be interested to know how much management's mindset might have shifted from a year ago when $150+ IO price was the norm (other than the shift in terminology from 'financing' to 'strategic partner', which gives a pretty good indication that this is not going to be debt funded).
I'd also like to ask point blank - what is the realistic amount of dilution that we'll see to get this thing operational. Obviously, that's not something that they can know for sure, but I think it'd be interesting to know what management think is likely. That's also probably something that would shift the share price (if anything can), depending on what level of dilution the market has already priced in.
I still think this is a company with incredible potential, but we're kidding ourselves if we think we're on the same path as we were 12 month ago. I'm still hoping for revised DFS scope Q1 2023, DFS completed Q4 2023, Financing/JV locked in Q1 2024, first shipment Q1 2026. Let's see how we go.
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