17 June 2024
CRML share price breaking out technically from 3 month downtrend
CRML becoming a leading US-based critical minerals company
Acquisition of world leading Tanbreez REE deposit is a master stroke
Lithium Refinery in Saudi Arabia with Obeikan Investment Group negotiations soon
Saudi Arabia’s industrialisation program delivers <US$0.048/kWh electricity
BMW US$15m prepaid lithium supply funds received by CRML
EUR will be taken along
EUR is also acquiring the high grade Leinster lithium project in Ireland for US$10m paid with 1.23m CRML shares
Market cap A$68m on 1,398m shares at A$0.049.
MPS assessed market value is A$0.67 today.
Appraised value A$1.14.
The pieces are coming together for EUR for it to be now taken as a serious company.
The listing on NASDAQ of CRML has given EUR a vast balance sheet to pursue developments of its lithium and now REE assets.
Despite the naysayers, CRML is well placed to become a key part of important US indices and the acquisition of Tanbreez should provide a significant re rating.
BMW has contributed US$15m to the Wolfsberg Lithium Project and Saudi Arabia is encouraging resources development using its world class new infrastructure and low cost energy inputs for the lithium refinery.
Saudi-based Obeikan Investment Group is JV partner.
Obeikan is one of Saudi Arabia's top 100 companies with more than 3000 employees and offices in 16 countries.
Saudi Arabia has been encouraging industrialisation and resource development under its Saudi Vision 2030 plan to reduce reliance on oil revenues.
A good example of this is the current Saudi drive to invite Australian exploration and development expertise to Saudi Arabia’s Archaean Nubian Belt and is offering 75% debt funding for capex, low energy costs (ultra low gas prices into electricity generation) and 2-3% interest rates for new mining development projects.
Obeikan Investment Group would be well placed to assist in utilising these available incentives.
Note the extent of Saudi Arabian Infrastructure described here.
All those oil revenues have been building a powerful infrastructure base for Saudi Arabia.
- Roads
- Railways
- Seaports
- Airports
The Lithium Refinery in Saudi Arabia is very real for CRML.
It is also becoming clearer that long term availability of higher grade spodumene for lithium extraction is far more limited than realised and most other non-brine lithium sources are uneconomic.
TANBREEZ
Tanbreez is one of the world’s most important REE deposits and its location in Greenland (part of Denmark) makes it European and more importantly non Chinese.
- China produces 60% of the world’s primary Rare Earths output
- China processes 87% of the worlds REE concentrates
- China produces 91% of the world’s refined REE metals
All other REE deposits just pale into insignificance against Tanbreez.
28.2mt of TREO.
10x Lynas’s resources.
400m thick, at surface and it is the coastline.
Market cap ( green) and total TREO resources (blue).
TANBREEZ dwarfs them.
Tanbreez is 27% Heavy REEs which are the most valuable.CRML is now being rerated.
Pass through value is very attractive for EUR.
CRML closed at US$11.53 on Friday 14 June and broke a three month downtrend.
Over A$0.60 per EUR share fully diluted.
The yellow shading is likely to be moving to the right.
Almost US$12 and A$0.66 for EUR.
Don’t miss out.
Leinster Lithium Project
EUR is in the process of acquiring LHR Resources which is the 100% owner of the Leinster Lithium Project.
The project is situated south of Dublin in the Leinster Granite Massif within the same key tectonic zone and along strike to the Blackstairs Lithium(Ganfeng / ILCjoint venture) Avalonia Project.
The Leinster Lithium Project is subdivided into a North Leinster and a South Leinster Block.
The North Leinster Block consists of 15 prospecting licenses covering an area of 477 km².
The South Leinster Block has 8 licenses covering 284 km².
Each block contains several developing prospect areas where significant lithium bearing spodumene pegmatites have been located in surface sampling and more recently in diamond drilling on PL 1597.
Grades over 3% LiO2 have been encountered.
EUR will acquire the asset through the sale of 1.23m CRML shares for US$10m.
Completion of transaction subject to usual due diligence.
The MPS Valuation Matrix
Key assets
- CRML (83% reducing to 82%)
- Tanbreez (7.5%)
- Lithium Ireland acquisition (paid for with 1.23m CRML shares for US$10m)
- Cash from exercised options in dilution process.
Market value today A$0.67 and A$1,253m.
Appraised Value A$1.14 at A$2,073m.
EUR downtrend broken.
Rally to A$0.09
Break of downtrend gives >A$0.40
Longer Term Technicals
A rise above A$0.065 would put EUR back into the long term formation after the false breakdown.
Break out is > A$0.14.
Bigger target is > A$1.20.
