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AGM summation, page-234

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Pokerface

7,317 Posts.

2687

12/02/17

15:04

Post #: 22550105
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Originally posted by longshot41 ↑

Thanks Happydad, yes it does feel very lonely in the glass half full club with members dwindling and thinking it's leader has rose coloured glasses and questioning whether he knows what's doing. Fair enough but I've been here before battling it out with my mate Q at 13c 3 years ago, but looking very smart at 44c last November as I punched through my Carona's on the Noosa river with the bride and my mates. Boy was Q missing in action then and kicking himself for not listening to Longshot at 13c then.

I'm now giving him the tip again at 12c which is absolutely extraordinary given what MBE have delivered and are very likely to deliver in the next 2-3 years with turnover heading to $100 million and a massive increase in addressable market with other revenue drivers, again with massive potential called "data assets". It's like we are living in a parallel universe where MBE is going broke overnight and now making losses. We all know that is simply not the case with their prospects of success very good in this rapidly expanding sector which they lead in many areas.

You are 1000% correct in saying they haven't put a foot wrong in 5 years taking this loss making company (with Chris's own coin) to an EBITDA of $290K, $2.140, $3.140, $5.09, $9.5 and this FY they will deliver more than $8 mil. Hardly a poor effort with a recent EPS rises of 57%.

In every business there are speed humps. I had one of my rock solid clients have $3 million fraudulently taken which in turn hit me for a $142K bad debt. Was this my fault and did this come out of my control, yes. What you do is cop it on the chin, put in place diversified clients to limit your exposure to this and keep the successful business plan going.

That is precisely what's just happened to MBE with a completely unforeseen hit to their Aussie revenues due to the "perfect storm" of circumstances where one major provider with most of their traffic changed something which caused MBE's integration to not work.

Did they communicate it well, no. Did they explain it to everyone's satisfaction at the AGM and get plenty of home truths, yes.

It's incredible how brutal the share market could be. Yes I was very pleased when the CBA and others joined the registry and I was saying so as it added a lot of credibility to the story. Why else did they chose to invest.

But what they just did when there was one hiccup has changed my view somewhat as these screen jockeys don't give a crap about the 2-3 view, they will dump you overnight if you put a foot wrong which is their perogative, but they will regret it over the medium term as this company is going big places IMO.

The addressable market lift towards 1 billion people, Nortel's wish for "go-to" exclusive partner MBE to go live with 100% of their carriers including India and North America, 30 plus countries and over 50 telcos tells me this successful OS model (as evident in the UK) will make this speed hump look like a drop in the bucket IMO.

A 15% drop in profit does not equate to a 50% drop in the SP, especially when the drop came off the lowest possible multiple of their 1.26c EPS IMO.

It's only a loss when you sell gents with these opportunities moments which test one's confidence in a company that's out of favour and others are fearful. The Buffet principle applies right now.

It's a real shame everyone couldn't come to the AGM as they are always very informative with Chris's view without notice their EPS should triple and be 100% higher in 3 years. And OS DCB will surpass Aussie DCB "imminently".

IMO what more do you need to know to load up at 12c?

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Longshot, one last question on this balmy Sunday. Having been at the AGM, do you still feel the content of your past 21155588 on 7 December remains valid, given the more recent market update.

MBE Price at posting: 6.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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