China’s reopening could propel iron ore to $US150 a tonne

The gradual reopening of China’s economy through looser COVID-19 restrictions could propel iron ore prices as high as $US150 a tonne by June next year, predicts broker Citi (reports The Australian Financial Review).

8th December 2022

Iron ore prices have rallied hard in the past two months after China’s policymakers stepped in decisively to support its troubled property sector. Demand for the steelmaking ingredient improved after Chinese cities relaxed strict COVID-19 restrictions, brightening the outlook for the global economy and its industrial output.

On Tuesday in Singapore, the benchmark December iron ore contract rose to $US109.20 a tonne, up 43 per cent since October 31. The December iron ore contract traded on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange rose to 793 yuan ($168), while the spot price edged up to $US109.60.

The advance prompted Citi to upgrade its forecast for Australia’s top export. It projects iron ore to reach $US120 on a three-month horizon, from $US110 previously.

But it could go a lot higher should China take drastic measures: “China is making meaningful progress towards further reopening,” it said in a note. “We believe iron ore prices could rally towards $US150 a tonne if China rolls out meaningful credit easing in the next three [to] six months.”

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