Interesting this whole options scenario...
In three years time I fully expect the MC to be in the $2-4b range, with all three assets producing (perhaps at reduced capacity) or very close to it.
In post-proposed-consolidation world, with a MC like that, those 4m options are worth (net) roughly in the range of $10 to $30m (i.e. $5 to $10 per share minus the exercise price of $2.50ish per share).
Do we really expect the share price (MC) to be about the same (as now) in three years' time? No way, imo. 30 consecutive days at $3.15? Absolutely. Not a problem. I don't see those vesting conditions as a stretch at all. Imo they'll all fall into place with the expected progress, or expected "business as usual".
Don't get me wrong, the guys have done and continue to do a fantastic job with the company, and should be handsomely rewarded, but that $10-30m seems pretty damn "guaranteed" to me! And that's a lot of coin!
Perhaps it's just in a different ball bark for me, so seems a bit crazy..
Hmmm... Hope they're still motivated after cashing that in! I certainly want to see further growth over the following 3 years, and the 3 after that.
Anyway, I think this should be viewed quite separately from the consolidation proposal. Some people seem to be bundling them together and judging them as one...?
I hope I'm not jinxed, as iirc I've had another consilidation for 10-1, which was followed (same company) by another 10-1!! Wowsers that was messy.
I still believe in the lithium shift and transformational change that it offers, so am staying the course, that's for sure.
Cheers everyone for the great and varied opinions!
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Interesting this whole options scenario... In three years time I...
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