I agree although there is some risk that FAR will need to follow through Arbitration with no guarantee of outcome and no T/O bid. Post FID FAR will need to lean on CNOOC for finance assistance so in some ways they have a plan B to T/O.
Cairn and Woodside transfer of operatorship will be one to watch - will it involve cash to take some additional % of the JV from CNE? I think that WPL purchasing additional % from CNE would force FARs arbitration vs COP because WPL would expect to be guaranteed at least 35% of any CNE farm-down as a JV partner but FAR (with CNOOC help) would potentially be able to PE that entire farm down % if WPL are not JV partners. If FAR accept WPL taking 35% of any CNE farm-down then it more or less kills their PE claim against COP by their acceptance of WPL in the JV.
AGM, page-12
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