I rekon Aristo is worth A50m - A75m and then less the net debt. So yes, the market is just valuing Aristo at this point in my opinion. I think with further bad news, such as ruling against DNA on lease or damages awarded to Vendor etc, it might settle around 5c per share, or around A40m market cap (plus the net debt). It certainly is an extrordinary situation. I think the Star Vegas might be impaired some more at half year results. Although, provided DNA run Star vegas for full year, underlying NPAT might still be in the region of A10m - 15m for full year on about A35-40m ebitda. I estimate H1 NPAT of circa A2.5m. Of course, this assumes theoretical win rates and a strong turn around of Aristo and Star Vegas pokies, perhaps beyong our hapless management.
There was post in another thread which compared the Vendor's actions to S.E. Asian bar owners selling to foreigners, and then making life hell for them until they give up and sell it back to the original owner for less. When you consider the Vendor controlled the junkets and owns the underlying land, its not far off what has allegedly transpired. I am now convinced the Vendor's intention is to get the ownership of Star Vegas back, and perhaps never intended to participate in DNA's equity.
Alternatively, I also speculate that the Vendor wanted to continue managing the Star Vegas under similar terms (25% of EBITDA ) and this started the conflict, which has now progressed to the Vendor just wanting Star Vegas back. However, he was refused naturally because DNA owned it and had already paid him for that. You then look at the actions he allegedly took, such as collapsing the VIP business and running competing casinos literally next door profiting from Star Vegas' former junkets. In addition to distracting management with countless lawsuits and on the ground disruptions. All in the face of DNA just wanting to run the casino they purchased for US360m as if they actually owned it! How rude of them!
