Yes I came to realise that too and reworked my model. It seems to fit the data better now.
Few inferences:
- Plug in last year win rate, you get a massive uplift of net gaming revenue. Almost 300 mil THB difference.
- Win rate at 3 percent, that is 140 mil difference. That work out to be 5.8 mil AUD EBITDA.
- MM revenue is really quite stable. Annualising my inferred MM revenue, it is consistent with your statement of about 500 mil THB per annum.
- Last year there was a 10 percent dip in MM revenue if you compared 2018/2017 annual figures. This year we are back on track.
Anyway, these are all on paper, what market is scared of is the unseen. Again, as I said, time will tell!
