Is anyone else not a tad concerned by the BHP being nearly half of what Strike were forecasting 2 months ago and yet the gas flows are well below what they were forescasting?
I see quite a few posts of 'great news today', 'Stuart very confident', 'commercial gasflows imminent' but not much discussion on the way the well is playing out compared to their model and given the figures are less than their model this is where the concern of non commercial flows comes in. The sharemarket reaction to the Jaws update today also tells a story that all may not be going to plan, which is the opposite to some of the ramping that seems to be going on.
There has been very little downtime so this is not the reason for the delay and mediocre gas ramp up.
Yes the water is still flowing well but the gas is not flowing well. We need gas not water. Strike were forecasting a healthy gas production window while the BHP was above 500psi, yet the BHP has somehow drastically reduced to 300psi but the Gas simply hasnt come on how they were predicting.
Given the BHP has reduced significantly, we dont have that up our sleeve anymore.
Have a look back at the presentation on the 12th October, the BHP was supposed to very slowly reduce and the gas was supposed to come on comparatively quickly. The opposite appears to have happened, BHP dropping off rather quickly but gas flows still quite low.
Very happy to be proved wrong but it appears Strikes model appears to be thrown out the window and not for good reasons.
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